NBL Round 21

Wollongong v Brisbane

The Hawks, who this week have been cleared to take their place in the NBL next season after raising the required funds to cover their debts, host the Bullets.  Both teams have to back up against different opposition tomorrow night.

The Hawks lost at home to Melbourne last Friday, 98-109 (2 days after losing in Sydney).  Cameron Tragardh top scored for the Hawks against Melbourne with 25 points.  Larry Davidson (20 points and 16 rebounds), Mat Campbell (18 points) and import Kavossy Franklin (17 points) also provided solid contributions.  The Hawks play the Razorbacks in Sydney tomorrow.

The Bullets got blitzed by 36 points, 97-133 against the 36ers in Adelaide last Saturday.  This came 3 days after blitzing the Tigers in Melbourne.  Import Ebi Ere led 6 players in double figures against the 36ers with 23 points.  The Bullets have a tough assignment against the Crocs in Townsville tomorrow night.

The Bullets need one more win from their remaining three games to guarantee themselves no worse than 3rd place heading into the playoffs.  With the Crocs awaiting them tomorrow night, I could see the Bullets being content with just getting a win here which seems to be accurately reflected in the line betting (if the Bullets were really desperate to win this game, they could quite easily do so by at least 20 points).  The points total does look a touch too high to me; however, given the fact that both teams are defensively shy, it is hard to argue with.  One point scoring matchup that looks like value to me is the unders with Tragardh v CJ Bruton.  The total between these 2 got to 36 points back in round 2.  Tragardh averages 17 points on the season and Bruton averages 20.  Tragardh will have some decent players in front of him trying to slow him down in Craig Bradshaw, Dusty Rychart and Justin Brown.  Bruton has been playing for quite a while with a hurt ankle.  Whilst this has not stopped him from putting in some decent scores in big games recently, he has been content to defer to his team mates more often in the less important games.  With the game against the Crocs tomorrow night, I could see Bruton letting his team mates get the job done tonight.

Under 35.0 @1.9 Tragardh v Bruton (Sportsbook) - 1 unit

Gold Coast v Sydney

The Blaze, who are in the logjam for the lower playoff positions, host the minor premiers, the Kings.  When these teams last met way back in round 1, it was the Kings who prevailed by 9 points in Sydney.

In a high scoring game, the Blaze defeated Adelaide at home last Sunday, 127-118 (2 days after losing in Cairns).  Import Jason Crowe (34 points) and James Harvey (30 points) were the main contributors.  The next game for the Blaze is at home against Perth next Wednesday.

The Kings comfortably accounted for the Wildcats in Perth (a very tough venue for any visitors to win in), 104-85 last Saturday (after comfortably defeating Wollongong at home 3 days earlier).  Import Dontaye Draper led 5 players in double figures with 20 points against the Wildcats.  The Kings next game is against Singapore at home tomorrow night.

The Kings look a touch short to me.  There is not quite enough value for a play on the plus for me though.  The points total looks spot on to me.