NBL Round 21

Perth v West Sydney

Darwin is the venue for this matchup between the Wildcats and the Razorbacks.  The Razorbacks were victorious by 13 points when these two teams last met in Sydney back in round 2.  The Wildcats are looking to hold onto 4th position whilst the Razorbacks will be looking towards next season as they are out of the playoff race.

After opening 2008 with 6 wins and just the one loss, the Wildcats have lost their last 3 games.  The most recent loss came at home against Sydney, 85-104, last Saturday (after they lost in New Zealand 2 days prior to that).  Import Gerald Brown led 5 players in double figures with 16 points.  Positions 5 to 8 on the ladder are all breathing down the neck of the Wildcats so they will be keen for a win here to keep the chasers at bay.

The Razorbacks lost 104-111 at home against Townsville last Thursday.  Import Troy DeVries top scored with 18 points.  Liam Rush (back) and import Darnell Hinson (Hip Flexor) are both expected to play.  If the game is out of reach down the stretch, I would not be surprised to see both of these guys being rested at this point as the Razorbacks have little to play for here.

I believe the Wildcats will attain a comfortable win here and that the line betting accurately reflects this.  The points total looks a touch too high to me.  The round 2 meeting did see the total get to 203 points.  Against all opponents at all venues, Wildcats games average 189 points whilst Razorbacks games average 200 points on the season.  Wildcats Coach Scott Fisher has said he is seeking more aggression with their rebounding and defence, 2 things that the Wildcats build their success around.  This along with the game being played in a neutral venue tells me that the unders are value.

Under 200.5 at $1.90 (Sportingbet) - 1 unit   

South Dragons v Cairns

The Dragons take a 14 game losing streak into this game against the Taipans, who have won 14 games on the season.  The Dragons squad will be out to show new Coach Guy Molloy (who was Assistant Coach until Shane Heal got sacked last week) what they can do as the whole organisation starts looking at who they want on their playing roster for next season.  The Taipans, currently in 8th position, will approach this game like the playoffs have already begun as they will be desperate for a better position heading into the postseason.

The Dragons were quick out of the gates but could not stay with New Zealand, losing 93-104 at home last Saturday (after losing in Singapore 3 days prior to that).  Imports Bakari Hendrix (25 points and 11 rebounds) and Cortez Groves (23 points) were the main contributors against New Zealand.  I already alluded to this above but 6 players in the current Dragons squad are free agents at the end of this season (Groves, Hendrix, Nathan Herbert, Brad Hill, Brent Hobba and Matt Shanahan).  These guys are essentially playing for a Dragons contract next season.  Whether or not they all want one and whether or not they will play hard as a result remains to be seen.

The Taipans edged out the Gold Coast by 2 point at home last Friday, 87-85.  Martin Cattalini and Nathan Jawai (22 and 21 points respectively) were the main contributors.  As I have said above this is pretty much a playoff game for the Taipans and I think that the Dragons, even though they are at home, will have a very hard time trying to defeat a team with as much ability and that will be playing as hard as I believe the Taipans will be. 

I believe the Taipans will have too much for the Dragons in the end.  There is not quite enough value in taking them at the minus for me though.  The points total looks about right to me.