NBL Round 20

Cairns v Gold Coast

Both of these teams had comfortable wins on their home court against one another in the 2 meetings earlier this season.  The season series decider, which could have a big bearing on playoff positions, takes place in Cairns.

The Taipans went 0 and 2 in their double header last weekend.  They lost by 7 points in Townsville 7 days ago and were then humbled by Adelaide on their home court the day after, losing by 6 points.  Imports Larry Abney (24 points) and Jarred Newson (23 points and 17 rebounds) were the main contributors against Adelaide.  Darnell Mee is expected to make his return from an ankle injury tonight which will give the Taipans a boost as his perimeter defence will be needed to combat the dangerous outside threat that the Blaze pose.

On the back of hitting some huge shots, the Blaze overcame a 6 point deficit halfway through the fourth quarter to defeat Perth by 4 points at home last Saturday, 88-84.  New import Luke Whitehead top scored with 21 points and he also grabbed 10 rebounds.  The Blaze turned the ball over 23 times in this game but the extremely poor free throw shooting from Perth (9 from 24 at 38%) essentially negated this.  I do not expect the Taipans or anyone else this season to have such a poor free throw shooting percentage in a game, so if the Blaze do not look after the ball, getting an away win here will be that much tougher.

I expect the Taipans to get back on track and account for the Blaze at home quite comfortably and believe that they are value in the current line betting.  They beat the Blaze by 16 points at home in round 2, the return of Mee and them slipping to 8th on the ladder (even though they are only one game behind the 5th placed Blaze) all tells me that they will come out with more urgency in front of their home fans and that a play on them is warranted.  The points total looks a touch high to me but there is not quite enough value there for a play on the unders for me.

Cairns -5.5 at $1.93 (Bet Choice) - 1 unit

Wollongong v Melbourne

Both of these teams enter this game having suffered big defeats two days ago.  The Hawks went down to the Tigers by 12 in Melbourne in round 1 and will be looking to return the favour on their home floor tonight.

The Hawks’ loss was by 19 points at the hands of the Kings in Sydney.  Import Kavossy Franklin led 4 players in double figures with 21 points.  It does not get any easier for the Hawks as their next game is in 7 days time against Brisbane at home.

The Tigers ran into a red-hot Ebi Ere and witnessed another stunning fourth quarter performance from CJ Bruton on route to their 20 point loss at home to Brisbane.  Import Sean Lampley top scored with 22 points.  The Tigers can ill afford to have any more let downs if they want to finish in the top 2 heading into the playoffs.

I believe the Tigers will get back on track and get a comfortable away victory here.  I do not have any opinion on the line betting and the points total also looks about right to me.