NBL Round 2

There were really sharp numbers in week one. Missed out collecting on 4 games by a combined total of 4 points, so we weren’t far off the mark, however bookies ended up with the cash. Lines are a little inflated on favourites in some games due to previous years’ high percentage returns, meaning there could be a lot of value in + lines in the next few weeks.

Townsville v Sydney

Both teams recorded victories in their opening matches however Townsville lost to the Taipans in Cairns, in game 2 of their season.
The Kings on the road last season recorded 6 wins and 11 defeats while Townsville had one of the best home court advantages with 13 wins and 4 losses. Two of those losses at home were from eventual grand finalists Bullets and Tigers. The Crocs also won the series 2-1 over the Kings which is a positive. Both rosters have changed somewhat from last year so perhaps last years results don’t have the same significance to this game.

The Crocs shot only 9 of 11 from the foul line against Cairns so this week look for them to be driving to the basket  which may generate some friendly hometown calls. This will put some pressure on Jason Smith, Saville and Mark Worthington which ultimately may put them in foul trouble.
They will also be looking for some ball movement on the perimeter moving the Kings defence from side to side as much as possible, wearing them down and making things easier for them offensively.

On the negative side the Crocs didn’t finish off against Cairns, after leading for the most part of three quarters. They may have been tired after their overtime win over the Razorbacks but perhaps they are just not that good on the road. Pepper and Ellis could not handle the size and power of 213cm Jawai from the Taipans. Luckily for them the Kings do not possess such an intimidating inside presence.

John Rillie averages significantly more points at home compared to on the road and the Crocs will be looking for him to provide them. They also need more points production from import Galen Young. Young has quite an impressive all round game but needs to assert his authority more and get to the rim. Bright notes so far have been Kelvin Robertson and Rosell Ellis.
 
The Kings outclassed Blaze when it counted last Sunday. They were terrible from the charity stripe 15/28 (53%), were out rebounded 58-50 and they were out hustled on 2nd chance points.  You won’t win many games shooting 40% from the field for a total of 88 points. They therefore rely heavily on their defence and Draper in the open court to create opportunities. It was a Typical Kings side, 9/35 from downtown at 25%. Goorjian, while happy after the game to get the win, urged fans to be patient with them as they are still a work in progress. He said the Kings were realistically 4 to 5 weeks away from playing at the level required to win consistently. Much of this will be due to Draper joining the squad late. With him being such a key component it will take some time from him to find his feet in this league. It’s also an adjustment for a team who were 7-0 in preseason without Draper to work him into their schemes. There is no question though of Draper’s all court game and he will be a great acquisition.

With the Crocs ball movement the key to this game the Kings will be looking to zero in on some steals with ball hawks Smith, Saville and Draper on the prowl. If the Crocs are able to swing the ball freely and operate their half court offence with Pepper/Ellis inside, it will really open this game up.  Mark Worthington was on fire for the Kings netting 19 points early against the Blaze and finishing with 26. From all reports he had a huge preseason, so it looks like time spent in the Boomer squad has done wonders for his game and given him the confidence to succeed. Kings have the edge here.

Singapore v Blaze

Both teams played twice last week and failed to open their accounts. The team with superior form is the Blaze, with leads in both of their games they unfortunately couldn’t finish them off. The Slingers while impressive for 3 quarters against the Tigers got blown away late and in Perth their young team was overawed in every facet of the game.

The Slingers while impressive at home last year being 9/16, only 3 of those wins were against teams that finished above them on the ladder and last years squad was far better in comparison. As predicted in the season preview I am anticipating Blaze to finish higher on the ladder then Slingers.

At this early stage in the season Gold Coast is by far the more settled team. They just need to show composure when it counts. They are more then capable on the glass, hustle for 2nd chance opportunities and have the outside gunners to make any other team cringe. They need to do a better job of controlling the ball and they definitely need more from their big men Pero Cameron and Ben Melmeth. Cameron played 16 minutes against Kings while Melmeth just 13. The Hawkins/Crowe import combo works well offensively however Crowe needs to control the ball much better than the 12 turnovers so far this season, including 8 against the Kings.

There may be room for improvement but good signs have been shown. With the Blaze upcoming schedule against Taipans in Cairns and Tigers at home, there is extra motivation to record their first win now or it might not be for awhile!

Slingers Coach Gordie McLeod was clearly frustrated after the Wildcats debacle and rightfully so. The Wildcats dominated from the very beginning thrashing the Slingers by 32 in the finish. Helms once again was the standout of an ordinary bunch, with 23 points, while Ben Knight with 20 and 10 boards was also useful. The big negative was most of these points were recorded in the final quarter when the Cats rested their starters. They also turned the ball over an amazing 24 times and with no true point guard on their roster this may be a continuing problem.

It’s too much to ask Helms to bring the ball up and score the bulk of points as well. They need to find someone quickly who can take some responsibility  and control however with an inexperienced roster it may take sometime before one of the youngsters has the confidence to come in and be effective. Rod Grizzard will eventually bring his best game but as is always the case with new imports, he is still adapting to the league.

The Blaze simply have more depth, are more versatile and have better form lines. They have much more scope for improvement with key players not having any bearing in their first two encounters but who will ultimately step up soon and make contributions. The Slingers will no doubt look to extend their flimsy defence to full court trying to pressure their opponent’s ball handlers into mistakes. Will they be able to do that enough to hurt Blaze? They play Townsville next week which is a much more winnable game for them due to Townsville’s deficiency away from home.

Selection: Blaze -2.5 or better - 2 units (-2.5@1.85 TAB)