NBL Round 19

Melbourne v Singapore

The Tigers, looking for their 4th win in a row, host the Slingers.  The Tigers will be looking for a clean sweep of the Slingers having already accounted for them twice this season.  The Slingers, looking to avoid the wooden spoon, will be looking to move a bit further away from the cellar for the time being.

The Tigers edged out the 36ers in Adelaide 3 days ago, winning 113-108.  Chris Anstey, David Barlow and import Sean Lampley (21 points each) were the main contributors.  I would expect the Tigers to be fired up to get a solid win in front of their home crowd on Australia Day.

The Slingers went down to Cairns at home last Sunday by 12 points, 87-99.  Mike Helms led 4 players in double figures with 26 points.  The Slingers only attempted 14 free throws in this game, almost half their season average.  Cairns deserve some credit for their defence here but when 43% of your field goals are 3 point attempts (33 three point attempts of 77 field goals, where only 27% of these went in), there also has to be a lack of aggression on the part of the Slingers, in particularly their imports Helms and Rod Grizzard, who are both able ball carriers and athletic enough to get themselves to the line (on the season, 30% of the Slingers field goals are three point attempts, where they make 32% of them).  If the Slingers do not try to take it at the likes of Anstey and Lampley, it could be a very long day at the office for them.

I believe the Slingers are a very minimal chance of getting the upset here, which looks to be accurately reflected in the line betting.  Whilst I believe that the points total is a touch high as I do not believe that the Slingers have very many points in them.  The amount of points that they are capable of conceding against the Tigers in front of their home crowd is keeping me away from having a play on the unders.    

Taipans v 36ers

The Taipans return home after losing in Townsville last night to host the 36ers.  The Taipans still have top 4 ambitions whilst the 36ers will be looking for a win to keep their ‘mathematic’ playoff chances alive.

7 points was the margin that the Taipans lost by last night.  Nathan Jawai (28 points and 15 rebounds) and Stephen Black (24 points and 9 assists) did their best to keep the Taipans in touch.  My mail is that they are a chance at getting Darnell Mee back for this game against his former team which will provide them with a boost.

The 36ers narrowly lost to Melbourne at home 3 days ago, 108-113.  Import Julius Hodge top scored with 27 points and Darren Ng has continued his good form of late in Captain Brett Maher’s absence with 24 points (Maher is still out injured).  A home game against Brisbane next Saturday awaits the 36ers.

I believe the Taipans will bounce back with minimal fuss here.  I have no opinion on the line betting.  The points total, whilst this does seem a bit high to me, is hard to argue with when one considers how poor the defence of the 36ers is as well as their offence being very up-tempo which means I won’t be getting involved here.  One player’s points tally that looks like value to me is the unders on Taipans import Larry Abney.  He averages 16.6 points on the season.  A lot of his high scoring games did come when Martin Cattalini was injured.  He did only take 9 shots last night (making 4 of them and finishing with 11 points).  I believe Coach Alan Black will be looking to work Cattalini back into their offence and along with their depth that they have with him and possibly Darnell Mee back in the line up, that a play on the unders is warranted.

Larry Abney under 17.0 points at $1.90 (Sportsbook) -1 unit

Gold Coast v Perth

The Blaze will be looking to square up the season series against the Wildcats on their home floor after losing to them by 15 points in Perth 2 weeks ago.  A win for the Blaze will also keep them in the hunt for a home playoff game.  A win for the Wildcats will give them some breathing space from 5th place and edge them a bit closer to 3rd place.

The Blaze comfortably accounted for Townsville at home 8 days ago, winning 105-87.  James Harvey top scored with 19 points, whilst import Luke Whitehead was also impressive with 17 points and 15 rebounds.  A matchup against the Taipans in Cairns next Friday awaits the Blaze.

The Wildcats defeated the Ebi Ere-less Bullets in Brisbane 105-95 last night.  Shawn Redhage (22 points), import Gerald Brown (21 points) and Paul Rogers (20 points) were the main contributors.  They will be keen to keep their momentum going and get their 5th win in a row.

I believe the Wildcats are a significantly better team than the Blaze.  Their game last night was a physical one.  From all reports, this mainly seemed to be the case as a lot of Brisbane players picked up injuries.  The Blaze are a tough team at home, however. The Wildcats are also quite competitive on the road and given the current momentum that the Wildcats have, I believe that a play on them is warranted.  The points total looks about right to me.

Perth +3.5 at $1.91 (Lasseters) - 1 unit
Perth $2.32 (Lasseters) - 1 unit