NBL Round 19

Brisbane v Perth

The Bullets host the Wildcats without league MVP candidate, import Ebi Ere.  A win keeps them breathing down the neck of Melbourne for 2nd place where a loss will see their opponents, the 4th placed Wildcats, breathing down their necks for 3rd place on the ladder.

The Bullets punished the 36ers last Saturday, 155-107.  Ere tallied 51 points in 32 minutes of court time (15 of 21 from the field which included 10 of 16 on three pointers)!!!  CJ Bruton (18 points) and Craig Bradshaw (17 points, 10 rebounds) also made valuable contributions.  Ere, who is back in the US for the birth of his third child, has been carrying a large chunk of the scoring load for the Bullets all season.  The Bullets do have enough to pick up the slack in his absence.

The Wildcats pulled away from the South Dragons in the second half to register a 111-99 victory against them last Saturday (three days after defeating the 36ers in Adelaide).  Alex Loughton top scored with 30 points against the Dragons.  He received good support from Shawn Redhage and Peter Crawford (23 points each).  The Wildcats take on the Blaze on the Gold Coast tomorrow night. 

I believe the Bullets at home will still have too much for the Wildcats.  The line betting and the points total look about right to me.  A point scoring matchup that looks like value to me is the overs on Bruton v Redhage.  They average 20 and 23 points on the season respectively.  In round 3 meeting against each other they got to 57 points (Bruton 23, Redhage 34) and in round 8 they got to 50 points (25 each).  The absence of Ere tells me that Bruton will have plenty of opportunities to get his points and that a play on the overs is warranted.

Bruton v Redhage over 42.5 at $1.90 (Sportsbook) - 1 unit

Townsville v Cairns

Another Queensland derby sees the Crocs hosting the Taipans.  The Crocs chances of a top 4 finish are getting slimmer whilst the Taipans are right in the mix for a place in the 4 heading into the playoffs.

The Crocs were comfortably defeated by the Blaze on the Gold Coast last Friday, losing 87-105.  5 players reached double figures for the Crocs, import Corey Williams top scored with 16 points.  The Crocs will be keen to even up the season series against the Taipans, after they lost to them by 24 points in Cairns back in round 1.

The Taipans overcame a small half time deficit to beat the Slingers in Singapore, 99-87 last Sunday.  In a shock return from what was thought to be a season-ending Achilles injury, Martin Cattalini led 6 players in double figures with 19 points on 7 of 9 shooting.  Role-player Dwayne Vale produced a valuable 18 points, 16 of which came in the fourth quarter which helped the Taipans pull away.  The Taipans host Adelaide tomorrow night.

If Darnell Mee (ankle) gets confirmed for this game (my mail is that he will only play one game of this double header), the plus 2.5 that is available for the Taipans looks like value to me.  I will not be getting involved in the line betting until I know his status for tonight.  The Taipans have the advantage in the frontcourt but could really have trouble keeping Williams and John Rillie quiet if Mee doesn’t play (as they are already without one of their better perimeter defenders in Aaron Grabau).  The points total looks about right to me.

Wollongong v South Dragons

The Dragons got a 7 point win at home against the Hawks back in round 7.  12 rounds later, the Hawks will be looking to square up the season series on their home court.

The Hawks overcame a small half time deficit to defeat Adelaide at home last Friday, 115-108.  Import Kavossy Franklin (26 points), Cameron Tragardh and Mat Campbell (19 points each) were the main contributors.  Campbell plays his 400th game in the red and white (only the 7th player in NBL history to do so with the one club) which will really get the Wollongong crowd behind their team.

The Dragons got smashed by the Kings in Sydney 2 days ago, losing 72-106.  Where 4 players reached double figures, Joe Ingles got the most with 13 points.  I find it hard to believe that Coach Shane Heal says that they are really trying to get more wins when he persists and persists with playing Joe Ingles at the point guard position, especially as he is not even the best point guard that they have available (I believe import Cortez Groves made a name for himself in this league playing point guard in recent seasons).  This match and next Wednesday’s against the Slingers in Singapore is as good of a chance as the Dragons are going to get to put an end to their losing streak, which currently stands at 11.

I believe the Hawks will be too much for the Dragons in front of their home fans.  I have no opinion on the line betting and the points total.