NBL Round 18

Melbourne v New Zealand

Dave Barlow had a perfect game (14 of 14 from the field, 8 from 8 on three pointers) when these two teams last met in Melbourne in Round 6.  The Tigers got a 25 point victory on that occasion.  They again square off in Melbourne tonight.

The Tigers overcame a 10 point half-time deficit against West Sydney last Saturday to edge out a 3 point win, 111-108.  Chris Anstey was the main contributor with 22 points and 20 rebounds.  The Tigers will be keen for a win here to continue their push for a top 2 finish heading into the playoffs.

After destroying the Gold Coast at home, the Breakers got destroyed in Townsville by the Crocs 2 days later, going down 88-108 last Saturday.  Kirk Penney (26 points) and imports Orien Greene (20 points), Derrick Alston (18 points), were the only players to register double figures against the Crocs.  Not having Tony Ronaldson against the Crocs did not make it easy.  His status for this game is questionable; going up against the big lineup of the Tigers will be that much harder without him.

With or without Ronaldson, I believe the Tigers will have too much for the Breakers here.  The line betting seems about right to me.  I think the points total is a touch too high.  The round 6 meeting did see 205 points between these two teams.  On the season the Tigers average 101 points at home and the Breakers 96 points away from home.  There are two other reasons why I believe a play on the unders is warranted.  One, I don’t believe the Breakers will allow the likes of Dave Barlow to drill 8 from 8 on three pointers and two, this game at this time of season could be very important for both teams given their current positions on the ladder.  I believe an intense battle could ensue with at least one, if not both teams, getting tight on offence.

Under 204.5 at $1.91 (Domebet) - 1 unit      

Perth v South Dragons

The Wildcats will be hoping for their 3rd win in a row as they host the Dragons, who take a 9 game losing streak into this game.  The Wildcats comfortably prevailed in the 2 previous meetings against the Dragons earlier in the season.  This will be the second game where the Dragons take to the court without Shane Heal on their playing roster (he is only going to Coach for the rest of the season).

The Wildcats destroyed the 36ers 101-82 in Adelaide 3 days ago.  Peter Crawford was on fire with 27 points on 10 from 15 shooting (which included 7 of 11 on three pointers).  Paul Rogers (18 points, 17 rebounds) and import Gerald Brown (16 points, many of which came in the third quarter and halted any runs that the 36ers did make) were also impressive.  The Wildcats know that if they are going to get 4th place, they can not afford to drop games against teams like the Dragons.  Because of this and his ‘dislike’ towards Heal, I expect Coach Scott Fisher to have his players raring to go come tip-off.

The first game of what could be the post Shane Heal (as a player) era at the Dragons saw them narrowly lose at home to West Sydney 3 days ago, 103-105.  Import Bakari Hendrix top scored with 27 points.  Jacob Holmes provided good support with 18 points.  The Dragons have only won 1 game away from home this season (Against West Sydney in round 9); getting win number 2 on the road here will be a very difficult task to say the least.

I expect the Wildcats to get the victory at home pretty easily here.  The line betting seems to accurately reflect this.  I think the points total is a little too high.  In the two previous meeting between these teams this season, it has reached 188 (in Perth, round 14) and 178 (in Melbourne, round 3).  On the season, the Wildcats average 97 points at home and the Dragons 99 points away from home.  I expect Fisher will get his team thinking about playing good defence first (which is what has generated their success all season long) as he has come out and said that he is desperate to avoid a let down at home here.  All of this tells me that a play on the unders is warranted.

Under 199.5 at $1.85 (TAB) - 1 unit

Brisbane v Adelaide

The Bullets host the 36ers in the third and final leg of their triple header.  The Bullets will be keen to ensure that the 36ers go 0 and 3 during this stretch and keep themselves right in the mix for a top 2 finish.  This week has not been kind to the 36ers as their playoff hopes (already slight to start with) have taken a fairly big hit.

The Bullets outclassed Cairns at home last Saturday 101-79.  In what could very well have been the first time a Brisbane victory this season has not resulted in CJ Bruton (11 points and 6 assists) or import Ebi Ere (20 points 7 rebounds) getting player of the game, these two players were still not exactly poor in this game.  Adam Gibson was player of the game with 20 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds.  All of which would be music to Coach Joey Wright’s ears as him team prepares themselves for their upcoming playoff run to try defend their title.  A home game against Perth next Friday awaits the Bullets.

The 36ers lost to the Hawks in Wollongong by 7 points last night (after losing to Perth at home 2 days prior to that).  In a game where they had a small half time lead, Import Julius Hodge (34 points and 14 rebounds) was once again impressive as was Darren Ng (30 points).  Their other import, Adam Ballinger was once again quiet with just 15 points on 6 from 13 shooting against his former team.  To even think of the word victory tonight, the 36ers will need both of their imports firing (especially with Captain Brett Maher still unable to play).

I believe the Bullets will win this game comfortably and that the line betting accurately reflects this.  The points total looks to be on the mark to me. 

Sydney v West Sydney

The Kings have lost 3 games this season.  None of these have come in succession.  One of these losses was against the Razorbacks at home (round 5).  They beat the Razorbacks on their home court in round 9.  A win in this season series decider for the visiting Razorbacks will keep their slim playoff chances alive.  A win or a loss won’t do too much to the Kings ladder-wise, a win will give them the season series in this local derby, so don’t be mistaken, the Kings, coming off a loss, will also show up ready to play.

The loss for the Kings came in Adelaide against the 36ers last Saturday, 93-115 (after beating the Hawks in Wollongong 3 days earlier).  Mark Worthington led 5 players in double figures with 27 points.  As I alluded to above, reigning NBL Coach of the Month Brian Goorjian will have his troops ready for battle.

The Razorbacks overcame a small half time deficit to edge out the Dragons in Melbourne 3 days ago, 105-103.  Import Darnell Hinson top-scored with 28 points (which included 6 from 11 on three pointers).  The Razorbacks need him firing if they are going to be any chance of getting the upset here.

I believe the Kings will get back on track here with relative ease.  The line betting and the points total look about right to me.