NBL Round 17

Adelaide v Sydney R17:

A team that still has playoff aspirations, the 36ers, hosts the minor premiers in waiting, the Kings.  Avoiding a season series sweep against the Kings will be a boost for the 36er’s playoff aspirations.  Meanwhile the Kings don’t really have a whole lot to play for, apart from perhaps wanting to avoid a temporary loss of momentum and making Coach Brian Goorjian unhappy as a result, so I also expect them to be ready to play as well.

The 36ers fell on the wrong side of a close contest in Perth against the Wildcats last Saturday, losing 88-90.  Import Adam Ballinger led 5 players in double figures with 25 points.  New import Julius Hodge is set to make his first start in the NBL after previously coming off the bench in the last 2 games.  If Adelaide is going to compete with the Kings, they cannot play a zone defence at all with the capable shooters that are in the purple and gold (this tactic temporarily had the Kings off guard in their round 12 meeting but the Kings will be ready for it this time around).

The Kings, whilst never really troubled, did have to work quite hard for their 106-99 win against the Hawks in Wollongong on Wednesday.  Import Isiah Victor had his most productive game this season with 24 points and 7 rebounds.  Mark Worthington (22 points) and Jason Smith (19 points, a lot of which seemed to put a halt to a lot of the runs that the Hawks did make and give the Kings some breathing space) also made valuable contributions.  The Kings have 3 home games to see out the rest of January, all against opponents currently outside the top 8 (West Sydney, South Dragons and the Hawks again).  A win here, which would be their 8th in a row, would set them up quite nicely for back end of their season.

The 36ers will make the Kings work for it but I believe the Kings will pull away and get the points in a tough contest.  The line betting seems to accurately reflect this.  The points total looks spot on to me.  

Brisbane v Cairns R17:

The Bullets will be keen to avoid a season series sweep against one of their state rivals, the visiting Taipans.  A win for them will also keep them right in the mix for a top 2 finish heading into the playoffs.  A victory here for the Taipans will go a long way towards getting them a top 4 finish at seasons end.

The Bullets defeated the South Dragons at home last Saturday, 132-101.  Import Ebi Ere put in another impressive performance, tallying 45 points (13 from 24 shooting from the field, 9 of 13 from behind the three point line and 10 from 10 on free throws) and 11 rebounds.  CJ Bruton also had 20 points and Captain Sam Mackinnon made a successful return from a knee injury, tallying 9 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists in 23 minutes of court time.  Mackinnon’s return to the frontcourt is a welcome one as they will need as many bigs as possible to throw at the frontcourt of the Taipans.

The Taipans outlasted a courageous Perth team to win at home, 93-89 on Wednesday.  Stephen Black and import Larry Abney (26 and 25 points respectively) did most of the damage offensively.  Beating the Bullets in Brisbane is a very difficult task.  Only one team has done so this season (Sydney in round 5).

The line betting looks about right to me.  The points total looks a little high to me.  However, given that only 2 of the Bullets 11 home games have gone under 210 points on the season thus far, it is hard to argue with.  A player’s points total that looks like value to me is Taipans import Jared Newson on the overs.  He averages 14 points on the season.  He tallied 22 points in the round 16 win against the Bullets.  In the Taipans 2 victories against the Bullets, Abney, Black and Nathan Jawai did the bulk of the damage offensively.  In order to avoid a season series sweep, I believe the Bullets will have to give these three guys more attention defensively which will give Newson plenty of opportunities to get 15 points.

1 unit Jarred Newson Over 14.5 points at $1.90 (Sportsbook)      

Townsville v New Zealand R17:

The Breakers prevailed by one point when these teams last met way back in round 4.  Tonight, the Crocs (8th) will be seeking revenge on their territory and to move above the Breakers (7th) in the process.

The Crocs comfortably accounted for the Dragons at home 8 days ago, winning 123-88.  Imports Galen Young (13 points, 15 rebounds, 8 assists) and Corey Williams (19 points) were impressive.  The Crocs next assignment is against the Blaze on the Gold Coast next Friday.

The Breakers come into this game on the back of an easy home win against the Blaze 2 days ago, winning by 33 points.  Kirk Penney had a solid game with 32 points.  Imports Derrick Alston (23 points) and Orien Greene (19 points) also made valuable contributions.  Tony Ronaldson picked up an Achilles injury in the second quarter of the Blaze game and will be unavailable tonight.  The Breakers will need another productive game from Alston in his absence.

I find this game a pretty tough one to pick, I believe the Breakers will either just grind out a win or get hammered as fatigue may set in from playing across the ditch 2 days ago.  The line betting looks about right to me.  The points total also looks to be on the mark. 

Melbourne v West Sydney R17:

The Tigers, looking to hold on to 2nd position on the ladder host the Razorbacks, who are out to keep their slim playoff chances alive.  Both teams lost last weekend and will be keen to get back on track.

The Tigers paid the price for missing some key free throws down the stretch against the Kings in Sydney last Saturday.  Shooting 1 of 4 from the line in the last 6 seconds enabled the Kings to send the game to overtime and beat the Tiger 115-107.  Chris Anstey, playing with a bad back, top scored with 28 points.  Dave Barlow and import Sean Lampley (19 points each) also made valuable contributions.  If they can reduce the impact that Razorbacks point guard, import Darnell Hinson has, it could get really ugly for the Razorbacks (I should point out that slowing down opposition point guards is something that the Tigers have struggled with more often than not all season long).

A week after upsetting the reigning champions, the Razorbacks relinquished a small half time lead in losing to New Zealand at home last Saturday, 97-113.  Import Troy DeVries led 5 players in double figures with 22 points.  Hinson, battling some foul trouble tallied a meager 11 points on 2 from 10 shooting.  His form has been quite up and down of late.  If he can get his shot going against the Tigers, he will be able to expose the matchup advantages that he has against the Tigers guards which will boost his team’s chances of stealing a win on the road here.

The line betting looks spot on to me as I believe the Tigers will get a comfortable victory at home.  The points total also looks to be about right.  A points matchup that looks like value to me is the overs between Lampley and DeVries.  They both average 17 points on the season.  They both have been in decent touch of late.  De Vries will get plenty of opportunities with Daryl Corletto most likely to guard him.  He will most likely get some decent looks against the zone that the second unit of the Tigers plays.  The opportunities for Lampley will be plenty as Anstey always attracts a lot of attention from opposing defenders.  If Anstey does not play much because of his back, this makes Lampley the number one option on offence for the Tigers.  All of this tells me that a play on the overs is warranted.      

1 unit over 33.5 Sean Lampley v Troy DeVries at $1.90 (Sportsbook)   

Perth v Gold Coast R17:

After both of these teams suffered away defeats on Wednesday, they have both traveled quite a bit for this game out west.  The Wildcats are hosting the Blaze.  Another great game is likely here as it yet another game that will have a massive bearing on the makeup of the seedings going into the playoffs in just over a month.

The Wildcats clawed their way back from a 17 point deficit at quarter time but could not get over the hump, eventually losing by 4 points against the Taipans in Cairns.  Alex Loughton and Paul Rogers (24 and 21 points respectively) were the main contributors.  Turning the ball over 25 times in this game did not help their cause.  Losing Peter Crawford in the first quarter to a shoulder injury also did not help (he is unlikely to play this game).  Rogers (finger) and defensive specialist Brad Robbins (knee) battled through this game with some injuries; both should be okay to take their place tonight.  In some positive team news, import Shawn Redhage will partake in a citizenship ceremony before the game which will enable the import in waiting Joe Shipp to take his place.  He is ranked third on California’s all-time point scoring list, behind Lamond Murray and one Sean Lampley.  The 26 year old has recently been playing in the NBA development league.

The Blaze got demolished by the Breakers in New Zealand on Thursday, losing 93-126.  Casey Frank top scored with 21 points.  New import Luke Whitehead had an impressive debut with 18 points in just 26 minutes of court time.  This is the last game of a 5-game road stretch, of which the Blaze has won just one of so far.

I expect the Wildcats to get a comfortable victory at home and the line betting looks about right to me.  The points total also looks to be on the mark.  A point scoring matchup that looks like value to me is Redhage up against James Harvey.  Redhage averages 23 points on the season and Harvey 22.  The emergence of new import Whitehead (who seems to be more of a scorer than the guy he has replaced, Juaquin Hawkins) tells me that Harvey’s average may drop off a touch on the back end of the season.  Peter Crawford’s likely absence also tells me that a few more shots may fall Redhage’s way than usual, who will also be fired up for a big one, being his first game as an ‘Australian’ in front of his home crowd.  I believe Harvey will have the tougher matchups in front of him as well which tells me that Redhage at the minus is value.

1 unit Shawn Redhage -2.0 v James Harvey at $1.90 (Sportsbook)