Wollongong v Sydney R17

After playing his first 395 games for the Hawks, Glen Saville plays his 416th for the Kings.  This will be the first time he has played in Wollongong in non-Hawks colours.  Nobody (not even Saville himself) expects him to get a warm reception from the Wollongong crowd.

The Hawks take a 2 game winning streak into this game after defeating New Zealand at home 111-101 last Friday.  Import Kavossy Franklin, Cameron Rigby (25 points each) and Cameron Tragardh (23 points) were the main contributors.  As a team, they shot a staggering 59 % from the field, including 68% (13 of 19) from behind the three point line.  They will have a hard time repeating such high percentages against anyone else in the league, especially against the defence of the Kings.  They will be hoping to do so as they will be keen for revenge after losing to the Kings in Sydney by 7 points in round 13. 

A victory for the Kings against their rivals here would give them their 7th in a row, after beating the Tigers in overtime (their 2nd game in two weeks that has needed an extra period to get a winner) 115-107.  Luke Kendall, NBL Player of the week, top scored with 24 points (11 of these in the 4th quarter which included the game-tying basket to send the game into overtime).  Import Dontaye Draper produced another solid game with 19 points.  The next destination for the Kings is Adelaide this Saturday against the 36ers, after that they have 3 home games in a row (West Sydney, South Dragons and Wollongong).  

Whilst the Hawks may make it hard for the Kings, I believe the Kings will have too much for them in the end.  The line betting seems to accurately reflect this.  The points total seems to be too high.  The Hawks average 94 points per game at home this season whilst the Kings average 104 points per game when away from home.  These two teams amassed 191 points in their round 13 meeting.  As mentioned above, I don’t believe the Hawks will shoot such a high percentage from the field as they did last week.  Being such bitter rivals with the Kings (along with the current off-court situation that they are in) tells me that the Hawks will do all that they can to make points hard to come by for the Kings.  I believe the unders are value.

1 unit under 196.5 at $1.85 (TAB)

Cairns v Perth R17

These two teams last met back in round 5 in Perth.  The Wildcats prevailed 87-73.  The Taipans will be keen to return the favour and get the victory in front of their home crowd.  Winning this game would be a big help for either side in their respective quests for a top 4 finish.

The Taipans comfortably accounted for Brisbane at home 9 days ago, prevailing 120-112.  Stephen Black led 5 players in double figures with 30 points (which included a perfect 15 of 15 from the free throw line).  The contributions of import Jared Newson and Nathan Jawai (22 and 21 points respectively) were also valuable.  Following this game, the Bullets in Brisbane on Saturday is the next assignment for the Taipans.

The Wildcats edged out Adelaide at home last Saturday, 90-88.  Import Shawn Redhage shook off a virus and top scored with 27 points (20 of which came in the second half).  Alex Loughton and import Gerald Brown were also impressive (21 and 17 points respectively).  The key to this game will be who gets the edge in the frontcourt.  This means if the Wildcats are going to get the away victory, Redhage, Loughton and Paul Rogers will all have to be on their game on both ends of the floor.

These two teams are quite evenly matched up to me.  The Taipans at home do have a slight edge.  I believe the line betting is about right.  The points total does look a touch low to me, however, I believe there is not quite enough value for a play on the overs.