Sydney v Melbourne R16

In what could very well be an early Grand Final preview, we have the Kings hosting the Tigers.  The Kings have already won the season series against the Tigers having beaten them in Melbourne twice.  The Tigers are now at full strength and in good form, which was not the case during the two games between these teams earlier in the season.  I just took a look at my TV guide and there is no NBL on tonight which is disappointing to say the least, I will be enjoying this game, which promises to be a cracker, on NBL radio instead.

The Kings overcame some rustiness, as well as a 9 point half time deficit, to beat an impressive New Zealand side in overtime, 103-94 last Saturday.  Jason Smith (23 points), Ian Crosswhite (20 points) and import Dontaye Draper (18 points) were the main contributors.  How they go about containing Chris Anstey and new import Sean Lampley will be interesting to see.  I’m guessing that there will be a mixture of defences thrown at them but most of all I think the Kings may try to take away their effectiveness on offence by making them really work on defence, which would mean the likes of Mark Worthington and Russell Hinder being a lot more aggressive when they have the ball.

The Tigers cruised to a home victory against the Gold Coast on Wednesday, winning 117-102.  Former King Dave Barlow top scored with 23 points.  Lampley continued to impress, in this game showing that he can also find the open man quickly when double teamed, attaining 6 assists.  If the likes of Stephen Hoare, Daryl Corletto, Barlow and import Dave Thomas can hit their shots, the Kings may not have an answer for the Tigers.

The Kings are deserved favourites at home and I have no opinion on the current line betting.  The points total looks a few points too high.  However, given that the success of both of these teams more often than not comes from the defensive end I will not be taking the overs.  One point scoring matchup that looks like value to me is Lampley v Jason Smith.  Smith has averaged 12 points in 2 games against the Tigers this season (he averages 13 per game against everyone else).  Thomas did not play in these two games which tells me that the perimeter defence of the Tigers will be a lot better and the likes of Smith won’t get as many open looks.  Like Brisbane, the Kings do have a small frontcourt that Lampley, with his impressive post game, can take advantage of.

1 unit Lampley -2.0 v Smith at $1.90 (Sportsbook)

Perth v Adelaide R16

The Wildcats return home from trouncing the Slingers in Singapore to host the 36ers, who have not played in the last 9 days.  Perth hosted the 36ers back in round 4 and triumphed in a close contest, 95-91.  Both teams have plenty to play for which should make it a good contest.

Wednesday’s victory against the Slingers keeps Perth right in the mix for a top 4 finish.  They had 7 players register in double figures with Alex Loughton and import Shawn Redhage tallying 20 each.  Peter Crawford was also impressive with 19 points and 8, that’s right EIGHT steals (the entire Slingers side registered 8 steals).  They have a very tough game in Cairns against the Taipans next Wednesday and would like this win to take some momentum going into it.

The 36ers beat the South Dragons in Melbourne in their last game.  Import Adam Ballinger led the way with 29 points.  Axel Dench also made a valuable contribution with 25 points on 10 of 11 shooting (including 3 of 4 on 3 pointers).  This game also saw the debut of their new import Julius Hodge, who showed a lot of promise, tallying 6 points 5 rebounds and 3 assists in just 19 minutes of court time.  I would not be surprised at all if he played a fair bit more than this against the Wildcats as they could use his defensive capabilities in trying to negate the impact of Peter Crawford as I believe that none of the 36ers other guards or small forwards would be able to do this.  They are right in the hunt for the top 8, so the 36ers will be very keen to try and get this win in Perth (easier said than done of course).

The flat 6 that is out there for Perth is, at home, tempting.  As they are traveling back from Singapore I will let it go though.  The points total looks spot on to me.  A point scoring matchup that looks like value to me is the unders on Redhage v Ballinger.  In the round 4 meeting between these two teams, Redhage had 40 and Ballinger 15.  On the season Redhage averages 23 points and Ballinger 22 points.  Ballinger has some great defenders to try and score against in Redhage, Loughton and Paul Rogers.  Redhage was unable to train yesterday after suffering the flu.  Coach Scott Fisher said he will take his place on court.  Given the chance of the blowout at home and Redhage being rested as a result, along with Loughton being in decent touch on the offensive end recently, I believe a play on the unders is warranted. 

1 unit under 49.5 Redhage v Ballinger at $1.90 (Sportsbook)