NBL Round 16

Wollongong v New Zealand R16

The Hawks and the Breakers had impressive performances last week. Only the Hawks came away with a victory though and they will be hoping for another win on their home court against the 7th placed Breakers.

The Hawks destroyed the Crocs 96-74 at home last Friday. Import Kavossy Franklin and Mat Campbell, both under injury clouds going into the game, led the way with 18 points each. This game will be number 396 as a Hawk for Campbell (which surpasses Glen Saville as the most) which is some feat and will fire up the Wollongong crowd and the Hawks themselves for a big game.

The Breakers attained a 9 point half time lead against the top of the ladder Kings in Sydney last Saturday, however, they could not hold on and lost out in overtime, 94-103. Tony Ronaldson led 5 players in double figures with 20 points. Both of their new imports also looked a lot more settled which will do their playoff aspirations no harm. Tomorrow they travel to Sydney to face the Razorbacks.

I believe the Breakers are value in the current line betting. They performed well against Sydney and they have said how important these upcoming games are for their top 8 prospects so I don’t expect them to take Wollongong lightly at all. The current points total market looks about right to me.

1 unit New Zealand -1.0 at $1.91 (Sportsbook)

Townsville v South Dragons R16

There’s no such thing as the right time but no team wants to have a current losing streak 2 thirds of the way into the season as the hosts for this game the Crocs (2 losses) and the visiting Dragons (6 losses) both have.  The Crocs want to move further up in the top 8 whilst the Dragons are trying to avoid the wooden spoon.

The Crocs went down on their home court against the Blaze on Monday, 79-87.  In a very poor offensive display as a whole, John Rillie top scored with 16 points.  Import Corey Williams had a very quiet game with just 8 points on 3 from 14 shooting and only 2 from 3 free throws (his season averages are 22 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and an average of 7 made free throws from almost 10 attempts per game).  The Crocs need a much better game from Williams for them to get the job done here.

The Dragons last played 9 days ago, losing at home to Adelaide 114-119.  Once again they put themselves behind the eight ball early and fell behind by 16 points at half time, leaving too much of a gap to make up in the second half.  Imports Cortez Groves and Bakari Hendrix (26 and 22 points respectively) had good games amidst growing scrutiny.  Joe Ingles (21 points) and Jacob Holmes (20 points and 15 rebounds) also contributed well.  They really do have to play defence if they want to be a chance here (something that they haven’t done all season, so I’m not sure what will motivate them to start doing so now).

Townsville have a lot more to play for here and I expect them to get the win comfortably.  The line betting looks about right to me.  The points total also looks to be spot on.  A point scoring matchup that looks like value to me is the overs in Williams v Hendrix.  On the season, they average 22 and 18 points per game respectively.  In the round 8 meeting against each other (where the Crocs were 6 point winners in Melbourne), Williams tallied 31 points and Hendrix 34 points.  Williams has been struggling of late, however, he is coming up against a very poor defence and Coach Trevor Gleeson has during the week been urging his troops to get back to basics and do the things that they do well, which for Williams is being aggressive and driving to the basket and getting plenty of free throws.

1 unit Williams v Hendrix over 39.5 at $1.90 (Sportsbook)