NBL Round 16

Cairns v Brisbane

Another Queensland rivalry takes place in Cairns with the Taipans hosting the Bullets.  The Taipans are currently on a 2 game losing streak and will be keen to round out 2007 with a win and give themselves some temporary breathing space from the lower positions in the top 8.  Meanwhile a win for the Bullets will keep them in touch with the top 2.

The Taipans went down 89-98 in Melbourne last Thursday against the Tigers.  Nathan Jawai led 5 players in double figures with 21 points.  New import Jared Newson also provided 19 points in just his second game in the NBL.  The Taipans have an 8 day break after this game and they would not want a loss hanging over their heads during this break.

After being upset in Sydney by the Razorbacks last Friday, the Bullets traveled back home and took care of business against Gold Coast the next day, winning 107-97.  For the first time in quite a while, the Bullets did not have to rely on really big games from CJ Bruton and import Ebi Ere to get the job done.  Bruton top scored against Gold Coast with 21 points.  Ere (16 points), their other import Dusty Rychart (15 points), Adam Gibson (16 points), Dillon Boucher (11 points), Mick Hill (11 points) and Craig Bradshaw (10 points) all made valuable contributions.  Given that they out-rebounded Gold Coast 57-37 (17-7 offensively), they should have accounted for Gold Coast a bit easier.  Letting Gold Coast shoot 43% from 3 point territory (15 of 35) would be a concerning aspect for the Bullets coming into this game.  Gold Coast does not really have any inside presence that could complement such good long-range shooting and cause the Bullets any real harm, in Jawai and import Larry Abney; the Taipans do have this presence.  If the Bullets want to square up the season series (they lost in Cairns 90-112 in round 6), they will have to close out on the Taipans shooters a lot better and their bigs (Rychart, Boucher, Bradshaw) will really need to be on their games defensively.

I think the Bullets are value in the current line betting market.  It’s an ominous sign for other teams when the role players of the Bullets can make good contributions on the scoreboard.  They are rebounding well enough and will recognize that they have rebound well as a team against the Taipans bigs.  I expect Coach Joey Wright to get them defending better on the perimeter as they will be keen to square up the season series against their state rivals.  The Taipans are always tough at home but I believe the Bullets have too much depth for them as they pursue a top 2 finish on the season.  The points total looks about right to me.

Brisbane -1.5 at $1.91 (Sportsbook, Betstar) - 1 unit

Townsville v Gold Coast

Another Queensland derby rounds out 2007 with the Crocs hosting the Blaze.  Both teams will be keen to get back on track after suffering defeats on the weekend. 

The Crocs were comfortably defeated in Wollongong on Friday by the spirited Hawks, imports Corey Williams and Galen Young (16 and 12 points respectively) were the only players to reach double figures.  The Crocs next 2 games are also at home and they will be looking at winning all of these next 3 in order to make a push for a top 4 spot.

The Blaze went down to the Bullets in Brisbane on Saturday, after trailing by only one point at half time, they lost 97-107.  James Harvey led 5 players in double figures with 22 points (which included 6 from 10 on three point shooting).  The Blaze have 3 more away games coming up after this (Melbourne, New Zealand and Perth).  They will view the Crocs as their best chance of getting an away win of these four and will be eager to get the win to try carry some kind of momentum into the next stretch of games.  

In what I believe will be a tight contest, I think the Crocs at home will have too much for the Blaze in the end.  The line betting looks about right to me.  The points total also looks to be on the mark.