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NBL Round 15
Brisbane v Gold Coast
The final season series matchup between state rivals the Bullets and the Blaze takes place in Brisbane. The Bullets comfortably won the first two meetings by an average of 19 points. The Blaze will be keen to get a win and keep those who are hunting their 4th position on the ladder at bay for the time being whilst the Bullets will want to get back on track after being upset by the Razorbacks in Sydney last night.
The Bullets let a 7 point 3 quarter time lead slip against West Sydney, to lose by 5 in the end. Import Ebi Ere top scored again with 23 points on 8 from 25 shooting, very poor by his standards. As a whole Brisbane shot 38% from the field, which is well below their 47% season average. Traveling back from Sydney will make it tough for them; however, they will be happy to tackle the Blaze on their home floor, where the Bullets are always tough to dethrone.
The Blaze, after attaining a 14 point half time lead against Singapore last Saturday, held on for a 5 point win on their home floor. James Harvey (29 points) and import Juaquin Hawkins (21 points) were the main contributors. Whilst they will be confident facing a Bullets team traveling back from Sydney who will still be without Sam Mackinnon (knee), the Blaze still won’t have Ben Melmeth (calf), which could make it tough on their bigs to keep up with the up-tempo game of the Bullets down the stretch.
With both teams facing tough schedules over the new years period, I believe the Bullets will get the win here. The Blaze getting out to a good start would not surprise me as the Bullets may need a quarter or two to find their legs; however I believe the Bullets will be too strong in the end. This all seems to be accurately reflected in the line betting. The points total looks about right to me.
Sydney v New Zealand
The televised game sees the Kings hosting the Breakers. The Kings have had to wait 13 days for a chance to try and get their 5th win in a row. Meanwhile, the Breakers will be looking to take a winning streak into the new year.
In their last game, the Kings managed to outlast a spirited Wollongong outfit, winning 99-92 at home. Import Dontaye Draper led 4 players in double figures with 22 points. Letting up after such a long break is something that Coach Brian Goorjian will not let his players do. Offensively, their timing may be off. Defensively, I will expect Goorjian to get his players to knuckle down.
The Breakers almost blew a 17 point, 3 quarter time lead against the Hawks at home 9 days ago, hanging on for a 105-103 win. Kirk Penney (27 points), Phill Jones (25 points) and Tony Ronaldson (22 points) did the bulk of the damage for the Breakers. They will be keen to avenge the 20 point loss they suffered to the Kings in New Zealand back in round 12. It will not be an easy task.
I expect the Kings to win this game quite easily. There is no value for me in backing them at the line. I believe the points total is a touch too high. Both of these teams coming off lengthy breaks which makes me believe that there touch on offence may not be there. Just one game out of eight on the Kings home floor has gone over 200 points this season (round 8 against Brisbane). The Kings average 99 points per game on their home floor this season. The Breakers average 94 points per game away from home this season. Goorjian will not have been happy conceding 100 points against the Breakers back in round 12 and as I have said above, I expect him to get his troops to clamp down, which tells me that the unders are value.
Under 202.5 at $1.90 (Sportingbet, Centrebet, Lasseters) - 1 unit
Perth v Melbourne
The Wildcats will be looking to keep themselves in the mix for a top 4 finish as they host the Tigers, who will be out to maintain 2nd place after recently regaining it. In this season series decider the Wildcats take a 2 game winning streak in and the Tigers won at home against Cairns 2 days ago.
The Wildcats easily accounted for the South Dragons at home last Saturday, winning 108-80. Import Shawn Redhage had a field day against the paltry defence of the Dragons, notching up 37 points on 14 of 23 shooting. Peter Crawford was also impressive with 18 points and 13 rebounds. The Wildcats are always tough to beat at home but they do face a formidable opponent in the Tigers.
Chris Anstey had a relatively quiet game by his standards in the Tigers win against Cairns on Thursday. He had 16 points on 7 of 15 shooting along with 12 rebounds and they still won, 98-89. For those of you who think that I am joking let me finish, new import Sean Lampley has announced his arrival in this league (if he had not done so already) with 27 points and 9 rebounds in his first start against the Taipans. His solid scoring ability takes a lot of pressure off Anstey and gives the defence of opposing teams a lot more headaches.
I expect this game to be a hard thought and close one. I believe the Tigers, with the addition of Lampley and their other import Dave Thomas having a game under his belt, will have too much for the Wildcats in the end and that they are value in the current market. The points total looks to be on the mark to me. A point scoring matchup that looks like value to me is the unders on Redhage v Anstey. These 2 average 22 and 23 points respectively on the season. Against each other, in 2 meetings this season Redhage has registered 20 points (round 10) and 10 points (round 12) whilst Anstey has posted 18 points (round 10) and 22 points (round 12). Lampley and Thomas played in neither of these games. When taking all of this in, I believe a play on the unders is warranted.
Melbourne at $1.90 (Centrebet, Lasseters, Sportsbet, Sports Acumen ) - 1 unit
Redhage v Anstey under 44.5 points at $1.90 (Sportsbook) - 1 unit
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