NBL Round 14

Perth v South Dragons

The Wildcats host the Dragons as they look to start a winning streak.  The Dragons will be looking to move away from the foot of the ladder and avoid their 5th loss in a row.

In not the prettiest of games for the neutral supporter, the Wildcats overcame a small 3 quarter time deficit to beat Townsville at home, 80-75.  Imports Shawn Redhage and Gerald Brown were the main contributors with 26 and 15 points respectively.  In a boost for them, forward Alex Loughton is expected to return from a nagging foot injury.  He definitely will bring some rebounding assistance.  His return also gives Coach Scott Fisher another body to throw on the Dragons bigs if Redhage or Paul Rogers get in any foul trouble.  After defeating them in Melbourne in round 3 by 16 points, the Wildcats will be confident of wrapping up the season series on their home floor.

The Dragons went down at home to the Melbourne Tigers last Saturday 88-98.  Joe Ingles and imports Bakari Hendrix and Cortez Groves carried the scoring load for them (17, 19 and 18 points respectively).  They were only trailing by 4 points late in the game, before David Barlow and Stephen Hoare hit a couple of big shots to kill them off.  After the game Player/Coach Shane Heal only paid tribute to the stellar game that Chris Anstey had, which is fair enough.  What he failed to do on top of this (which the Shane Heal of a few years back would have done) was express his disappointment at not being able to close out on the Tigers shooters or recognize where Anstey will be when they have the ball (Anstey may not have blocked 6 shots if they did this).  I may be sounding a bit harsh on Heal and the Dragons; however, not showing the fire that he used to have (which made a lot of people dislike him and also made Heal and his team mates such great competitors) tells me that the Dragons don’t really think that they can make the playoffs.

I believe the Wildcats will win this game comfortably on their home floor.  The Dragons will want to avoid the wooden spoon and will put up a fight but I think the Wildcats will have too much for them in the end.  The line betting looks about right to me.  The points total also looks to be on the mark.
       

West Sydney v Adelaide

The Razorbacks (9th place) host the 36ers (10th place). This game promises to be keenly contested as both teams will be looking to keep the top 8 within striking distance.

The Razorbacks notched up a win in Singapore three days ago defeating the Slingers 113-99. Imports Troy De Vries and Darnell Hinson were the main contributors with 23 and 22 points respectively. They will be keen to avenge the 7 point round 11 loss to the 36ers and square up the season series. Traveling back from Singapore could make this a difficult task for them.

The 36ers couldn’t stay with the Tigers for the whole game, eventually going down 92-110 in Melbourne 3 days ago. Brett Maher led the team in scoring with 26 points. Persisting with a zone defence against the Razorbacks on their home floor, could spell trouble, with the numerous amount of good shooters that the Razorbacks have. They will go into this game with only one import (their new guy is due to suit up next week).

I expect the Razorbacks to get the points at home here. Traveling back from Singapore has me wary about taking them at the minus though. The points total looks about right to me. In a point scoring matchup, De Vries v Maher, the overs look like value to me. They average 16 and 18 points respectively on the season. Maher looked to be in quite good touch against the Tigers as did De Vries against the Slingers. Both teams play quite an up-tempo style of game which tells me that there will be plenty of points on offer for both of these players.

1 unit De Vries v Maher over 34.5 at 1.9 (Sportsbook)

Brisbane v Melbourne

It has taken until round 14 to finally get the first grand final replay from last season with the Bullets hosting the Tigers. The winner of this game will be the sole occupants of second place on the ladder for the time being.

The Bullets, the reigning champions, are currently on a 2 game winning streak, most recently smashing New Zealand on their home floor last Sunday, 125-93. Import Ebi Ere had a fairly decent game to say the least. If it was not for Chris Anstey’s game against the Dragons, he may very well have been awarded the NBL player of the week, amassing 42 points on 15 of 23 shooting (including 7 of 11 from 3 point land) whilst also grabbing 10 rebounds!!! They will still be without Sam Mackinnon (knee) which means that it will have to be a team effort to keep the bigger Tigers from dominating on the rebounds.

The Tigers will be looking to extend their 3 game winning streak after accounting for Adelaide 110-92 at home 3 days ago. They had 4 players in double figures with Anstey (29 points) leading the way. Import Dave Thomas is a chance of playing some limited minutes off the bench in this game. If he does play, I do not expect him to be much of a factor as he has not played in quite a while. The likes of Daryl Corletto, Stephen Hoare and David Barlow will have to knock down their open looks that they will be getting (which I believe would be a lot) from Anstey being double teamed to stay with the Bullets and give themselves a chance of beating them on their home floor.

I expect this contest to be quite an even one. The Bullets look to be little short to me. I believe the key to this game will be whose role players contribute more. The Bullets at home may just have the edge in this area and I will not be getting involved in the line betting. The points total looks spot on to me. I believe that there is some value in a point scoring matchup, Anstey v Ere. They average 22 and 26 points respectively on the season. Anstey’s average over the last few weeks is significantly higher as he has been shooting a much better percentage. Brisbane will double team him a lot. Against much better defences like that of Sydney, Perth and Cairns, Anstey’s lowest tally was 18 points in 5 games against these mentioned teams. I believe that Brisbane’s defence is not as good as these mentioned teams. Brisbane’s offence on the other hand, is quite impressive. Ere is a big reason for this. Barlow or whoever else the Tigers try to guard him with will have a very hard time slowing him down (if at all). The overs in this matchup looks like value to me.

1 unit Anstey v Ere Over 47.5 at $1.90 (Sportsbook)