NBL Games Round 1

Saturday 22nd of September

Melbourne v Hawks

The Tigers return home victors from Singapore to compete in front of their home crowd for the first time in season 2007. They simply had too much class when it counted racing away from the Slingers to win by 23 points, despite it being only a 4 point game at the conclusion of the 3rd quarter. The Tigers used their full court defence and recorded many fast break opportunities to seal the deal. Anstey lead the way with 20pts and was well supported by new import Martin Muursepp while Corletto chimed in with 17. Anstey plays his 250th NBL game against the Hawks so there will be no question as to commitment for this game. No doubt the Tigers will be looking to pound the ball inside against their smaller opponents to ram home their height advantage.

The Hawks opened their account with hard fought loss in Adelaide last night. Kavossy Franklin lead the way with a solid 19 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists in 47 minutes of court time. Mat Cambell fired in 16 points, perfect 4/4 from downtown and at the charity stripe. Import James Peters was disappointing and only shot 4/12 from the field for 11 points in 29 minutes with 6 turnovers. The Hawks shot 60% in the first half and lived and died from the arc, scorching 11/22. They need to be better from the foul line shooting only 14/26 (53%).
Interestingly enough the Tigers only beat the Hawks by a combined margin of just over 7 last year. But that was then and this is now, and as mentioned, they will be using their height edge at every opportunity down the floor. It’s not like the Hawks were completely hopeless in their initial outing. They were competing on the boards, they played with intensity, and played the full 48 minutes, even when it blew out to a double digit lead. When the game looked beyond reach they still fought hard. I wasn’t impressed though with their free throw shooting and turnovers, not to mention their ill discipline in recording 2 tech fouls.

With the Tigers full court pressure and with unlimited options on offence it’s hard to see Hawks backing up from last night with any confidence. And from all reports they were a frustrated team for the most part with Adelaide only letting up in the final 2 minutes to make the result look like it was a contest. I think the Tigers will be pressuring the Hawks into a lot of turnovers and creating things in transition. The visitors need someone to step up and supply some production so Franklin doesn’t have to carry the team on his back all night. If they think they can just depend upon their outside shooting and Franklin to score 30 points consistently then the hierarchy better rethink.

Dragons v Razors

The Hammer is back better prepared as player/coach to drive the Dragons into the top 4. Like many other NBL teams the Dragons changed both import spots bringing in big man Nick Horvath and blue chip Cortez Groves. Groves will team with Heal for one of the best backcourts in the league. Hopefully for Hammer his back holds up and he is able breathe enough fire to spark the Dragons. Even if the stalwart can’t hit the floor they still have many weapons, including young gun Joe Ingles. Ingles is potentially NBA bound however he just needs to work on aspects of his game to get to the next level. Matt Burston’s fitness remains a key as he is a talented low post player who can be quite dominating at times. Jacob Holmes is also very important perimeter player who has to give quality minutes. They also have enough depth in Shanahan, Brad Hill and Brent Hobba. While they were forced to play small ball a lot last year, now with Horvath and a healthy Burston it gives them the extra dimension to succeed more frequently.

West Sydney were unlucky in their overtime loss to Townsville. Many positives were taken out of the game for the young Razorback squad. They got to the foul line and buried their free throws, they had 42 points off their bench and they dominated the boards 48-38, in particular on the offensive glass where they scored 23-14 to edge on 2nd chance points. Coach Beveridge although disappointed with the loss was well pleased with the effort. A couple notable areas they have to improve on however was their team defence. The Razors allowed the Crocs to shoot 58% FG and 43% from downtown. Far too high. A lot of those were cheap points inside so they have to tighten up their interior. I was a little disappointed in Troy DeVries production, just 11 points in 21 minutes. Hinson lead the charge with 27 , Khazzouh was solid 17 and 11 rebounds and had good support from Matt Knight with 16 and Liam Rush with 14 points.

I think the key factors for this game will be the backcourt tandem of Hammer/Groves and the inside games of Horvath/Burston and how the young Razors can contain them.

The negative from the Razors first outing was their defence and the Dragons have shown in the past that they are not willing to play much defence either, so this should be a high tempo affair. The Razors will also be better with the game under their belt and coming in against a team who will give them every opportunity to score. The Dragons will be looking to pound the ball in low hoping to take some advantage of the smaller Razors, but this goes against their natural game that got them to the play offs last season. Horvath/Heal/Groves and Burston are always questionable fitness wise and they are playing a team of youngsters who are fearless and quite eager to land a big scalp early in the season to boost morale. All the pressure will be on Hammer’s men to win convincingly. It must be remembered they only won 4 games by more the 13 last year and the Razors are underrated, so and I am sticking with them to stay within the margin. The line is a little excessive here given the result of the other night and perhaps may even drift closer to tip off . The negative is all favourites have won and covered so far so its hard to tip a team backing up on the road so early in the season.

Selection

Razors +11.5 or better 1 unit (+11.5 @ 1.9 Sportsbet, Centrebet, Sports Acumen)

Cairns v Townsville

Arch rivals Cairns and Townsville clash in a battle for bragging rights in the far north. Last year the Crocs held a 3-0 advantage over the Taipans.
Both teams secured hard fought wins in their first two games. Cairns hung on to beat NZ by 5 and the Crocs had some bite in overtime to starve off the young Razors.
For the Crocs it was Ellis and Pepper combining inside for 52 points between them and John Rille/Robertson outside combo with 38. Kelvin Robertson was outstanding with 4/8 triples. The Crocs shot the lights out, 58%fg and 43% 3pts were the key to victory, even though they got out hustled by 10 on the boards. They need to improve their free throw shooting 16/28 (57%) was not good. The biggest culprit was Rosell Ellis who missed all 5 of his attempts yet still managed to tally 30!!

In Nz Stephen Black showed his true worth with 26pts and 6 assists to lead the Taipans to victory without Darnell Mee. NZ had the advantage at the half and it was neck and neck till the last 2mins but Cairns showed true grit to get the money. Jawai was most impressive with 14pts and 7 boards and was ably supported by Abney with 17pts.

Missing in action was Cattalini who only had 5 points in 31 minutes. You have to question just how fit the Cat is. They impressed by getting to the foul line and holding a 46-36 rebounding edge however it’s a quick turnaround for them in their home opener.

The Crocs hold no fear of Cairns and with the added spice of Larry Abney jumping ship to join their neighbours, things could get a little nasty. The Crocs should hustle better in this high intensity match to match Cairns on the boards. With No Darnell Mee and Cattalini down on confidence and fitness, the Crocs have reasons to feel they can go into the Taipan’s pit and return with a win. This will depend upon another strong showing from Galen Young who almost recorded a triple double in his first NBL match.

Selection

Bad free throw shooting along with an ordinary effort on the glass combined with streaky shooting is enough for me to steer clear of Crocs even though they have a lot points in them. You can not play these teams regularly and expect to make money long term. They will lift their intensity on the boards to try and nullify Cairns and look to shut down Cattalini who is obviously not 100%. Townsville will grind and get Cairns in a half court game in an attempt to make it a fierce rebound contest. This should keep the scoring low and with the short turnaround for Cairns and without the creativeness of Darnell Mee, points will be at a premium.

Under 206.5 1.5 units TAB (under 206.5 @ 1.85 TAB)