NBL Round 13

Adelaide v Singapore

The 36ers (6 wins, 9 losses) host the Slingers (3 wins 16 losses).  The 36ers will be looking to avoid starting a losing streak and hand the Slingers their 3rd loss in a row.  Only one import will most likely be on deck for the 36ers.

The 10th placed 36ers released under-performing import Mike Chappell this week.  They are actively pursuing replacements, but I highly doubt they will have one ready for this game.  After they recognized that playing a zone against Sydney won’t get the job done (which only took them 2 and a half quarters to do so), they looked pretty decent in the end.  They lost by 12 in front of their home fans, after letting the Kings get to a 30 point lead just after half time.  They had 5 players reach double figures with Brad Davidson and import Adam Ballinger (19 and 20 points respectively) leading the way.  After winning in Singapore by 18 points in round 8 (without Captain Brett Maher), they will fancy their chances of wrapping up the season series against the Slingers here.

The Slingers, currently occupying last position, lost in Townsville by 12 points to the Crocs after copping a drubbing in Wollongong 4 days earlier, at the hands of the Hawks.  They did blow a small half-time lead en-route to the defeat against the Crocs.  Import Mike Helms had 34 points.  He received little support, with only 3 other players reaching double figures and none of these reaching 20 points.  Their other import, Rod Grizzard, had only 8 points on 3 of 9 shooting from the field.  For them to be competitive with anyone, they really need both of their imports firing.

Adelaide looks a touch too short to me, especially if they will only have one import for this game.  Until I know that this will most definitely be the case, there will be no play for me on the Slingers.  The points total looks a little high as well, not quite high enough to warrant a play on the unders though.     

South Dragons v Melbourne

The Dragons will be looking to put an end to a 3 game losing streak.  Meanwhile the Tigers, will be seeking a win to start a winning streak and remain in second place on the ladder.

The Dragons were on the wrong side of a shootout on the Gold Coast, losing 116-127 to the Blaze.  The main contributors for the Dragons were Shane Heal (37 points, 6 from 12 on 3 pointers), Joe Ingles (21 points) and import Bakari Hendrix (23 points, 5 from 5 on 3 pointers).  They allowed the Blaze to make a league record 26 3 pointers at 62%.  Hearing Heal speak about this after the game does not tell me that they are going to address their defensive woes anytime soon.  In short he was saying how amazing the Blaze were from outside the arc and that they defied the scouting reports (because guys like Jason Crowe, James Harvey, Pero Cameron and Scott McGregor can’t hit 3 pointers if they get left wide open of course), but he didn’t mention how bad their defence was.  Their defence was terrible and has been for most of the year (allowing 101 points per game on their home court).  That being said, if they are to get a win this year over their more fancied city rivals, this will be as good of a chance as they will ever get.

The Tigers defeated the Wildcats at home last Saturday in a low scoring game, 86-79.  Chris Anstey (22 points, 21 rebounds) and Daryl Corletto (23 points) were the standout performers.  What really got the Tigers this win was their dominance on the boards (they out-rebounded Perth 68-46).  Such dominance on the boards usually translates into a more comfortable victory.  What made this score line look respectable for the Wildcats was the continued poor shooting from the field for the Tigers (37% and 28% on 3 pointers in this game).  Coach Alan Westover said during the week that he is concerned about this.  The Tigers have released import Martin Muursepp due to his continued struggles with his ankle injury.  My mail is that replacement Sean Lampley has been cleared and will likely start off the bench with Stephen Hoare being promoted to the starting lineup.  The Tigers other import, Dave Thomas, is a chance of finally returning from a knee injury.  Westover said if he does play, it will only be off the bench and he may not receive many minutes as he would be lacking in match fitness.  

I believe the injection of new import Lampley will give the Tigers the lift they need to get the job done here.  The Dragons on their home floor will be tough; they also do tend to fire up for these derby games.  This all seems to be accurately reflected in the line betting.  The points total looks spot on to me.  

Perth v Townsville

Eighth versus seventh here with the Wildcats hosting the Crocs.  The Wildcats will be looking to put an end to a 2 game slide and even up the season series against the Crocs, who will be looking to extend a 2 game winning streak (which included a 4 point win at home against the Wildcats in round 11).
              
The Wildcats went down in Melbourne to the Tigers last Saturday by 7 points.  Considering that they lost the rebound count in this game by 22 (46-68), they did well to only go down by 7.  Peter Crawford top scored with 13 points (5 other players also reached double figures).  While they don’t have to box out Chris Anstey this game (who got 21 rebounds against them), with Alex Loughton not playing again, Paul Rogers, Jeff Dowdell and import Sean Redhage will still have their work cut out for them keeping Ben Pepper, Greg Vanderjagt and import Galen Young off the glass.  To compete with the Crocs, they will also need to try keep import Corey Williams away from the basket and force him to shoot jumpshots.  

The Crocs, after trailing at half time, were too good for Singapore in the end, winning by 12 on their home floor.  Williams top scored with 31 points.  John Rillie was also impressive with 29 points (which included 7 from 12 on 3 pointers).  The Crocs will be keen to attain the season series split against the Wildcats with a victory here.

The Wildcats are too short here.  Without Loughton, all it will take is one of Rogers or Redhage getting in some foul trouble for the Crocs to really get on top of them.  Perth is a tough place for travelling teams to play in; however, I believe the absence of Loughton will be too much in the end.  The points total looks about right to me.

Townsville +6.5 @ $1.85 TAB - 2 units
Townsville @ $3.10 Lasseters - 1 unit