NBL Round 12

Townsville v Singapore

The Crocs host the Slingers where they will be out to start another winning streak.  The Slingers will be looking to avoid starting another losing streak.  These two teams have played each other twice this season, with the home team winning each time (Slingers by 15 in round 3 and the Crocs by 12 in round 9). 

The Crocs defeated Perth 97-93 at home last Saturday after losing in Brisbane by 7 points 2 days earlier.  John Rillie led the way with 28 points against the Wildcats.  The Crocs will most likely still be without role player Drew Williamson (dislocated collarbone), they are otherwise at full strength.

After upsetting the reigning champions at home last Sunday, the Slingers lost in Wollongong on Wednesday, against their main danger for the wooden spoon, the Hawks, 72-93.  Import Mike Helms had 20 points; Ben Knight had 16 points and 11 rebounds.  The support that these two received was minimal to say the least.  Another thing from this game that caught my eye was the Slingers shooting 1 from 20 on 3 pointers, that's 5%!!!  Given that they shoot 34% on the season, one would think that shooting this poor would not happen 2 games in a row (then you just have to look at how the Melbourne Tigers have been shooting in recent times that defies this train of thought).  Point guard Shane McDonald carried an ankle complaint into the Hawks game where he only played 12 minutes.  The Slingers have no other issues with personnel.

I believe the Crocs will win this game and win it easy.  The line betting seems to accurately reflect this.  The points total looks about right to me.

Melbourne v Perth

The Tigers will be out for revenge and will look to end a 4 game slide as they host the Wildcats.  The Wildcats will be looking to get back on track and stay in touch with the top 4.

The 2nd placed Tigers lost their 4th game in a row to the Kings by 8 points on their home court last Saturday.  It was a very poor 2nd quarter that hurt them this time, where they were outscored 12-33.  Putting Darryl McDonald on the bench and starting Nathan Crosswell had the desired effect as they jumped out of the gate and had a 7 point lead after the first quarter.  I would imagine that Coach Alan Westover will do this again against the Wildcats.  Chris Anstey had some support offensively from David Barlow, import Martin Muursepp, Stephen Hoare, Crosswell and McDonald (15, 12, 11, 12 and 15 points respectively).  Anstey had 19 points himself, but this was at only 26% from the field, which for a big man, as well as his high standards, is just not good enough, especially against the Kings.  They will be desperate to get out of the rut that they are currently in.

The Wildcats had their 3 game winning streak (which included impressive wins over the Tigers and Kings) put to an end in Townsville last Saturday, in a 4 point loss.  Alex Loughton played only 18 minutes in this game (he averages 32 on the season); contributing a meager 5 points and 1 rebound (he averages 14 and 7 on the season).  He has succumbed to his foot injury and will not take his place on court against the Tigers.  This is a very tough spot to cover for, especially against the big frontcourt of the Melbourne Tigers. If Paul Rogers or import Shawn Redhage get in any sort of foul trouble, it could be a tough day at the office for the Wildcats.

I believe Loughton’s absence will enable Melbourne to end their losing streak.  It could be an ugly game to watch as Melbourne is playing poorly so I’m glad it’s not the TV game.  The line betting seems about right to me.  The points total looks to be right on the mark as well.         

Adelaide v Sydney

The 36ers get their Captain back as they host the Kings.  The 36ers (10th) will be looking to stay in reach of the top 8 and start a winning streak.  The Kings will be looking for their 3rd consecutive win.

Adelaide notched up a 7 point victory against West Sydney at home last Saturday which put an end to a 2 game slide.  Darren Ng and import Adam Ballinger led the way with 24 points each.  Brett Maher will be returning for this battle with the Kings.  The 36ers had 3 wins and 2 losses in their Captain’s absence.  For Maher to be effective, he will need some scoring support from one or two of his team mates (to spread the Kings defence and prevent them really keying in on him).  He did not get any in their round 6 meeting in Sydney, which resulted in an 18 point win to the Kings.  The pressure on import Mike Chappell is at boiling point.  To be competitive against the Kings, they will need a good contribution from him offensively.

The Kings put in yet another impressive performance on Thursday, destroying the Breakers in New Zealand by 20 points.  They had 3 players reach 20 points in Mark Worthington (28), Jason Smith (21) and import Dontaye Draper (24).  Their only fault from this game was shooting 64% (20 from 31) from the free throw line, quite a small fault in the scheme of things, especially when the Breakers only made 3 more (at 79%).

I can’t see Adelaide winning this game.  Maher returning in front of his home crowd will give them a boost but I believe the Kings will still be too good.  The line betting looks about right to me.  The points total does look a little high.  Not quite enough value for a play on the unders though.

Cairns v West Sydney

The Razorbacks will complete a tough double header as they travel a bit further up north to Cairns.  The Taipans will be looking to make it 3 losses in a row for the Razorbacks which will start a winning streak for them.

The Taipans comfortably defeated the South Dragons 125-96 at home last Saturday.  They did this without Darnell Mee, who will not face the Razorbacks (sore ankle).  6 players scored in double figures, with Stephen Black and import Larry Abney (29 and 22 points respectively) being the main contributors.  Big men Matt Smith and Nathan Jawai picked up some niggles in this game.  Coach Alan Black said that he expects them both to be fine.  In other team news, guard Scott Cook faces a fitness test on his ankle.  Whilst this would be a blow if he does not play, there still is plenty of depth in the backcourt in Black, Gary Boodnikoff and Aaron Grabau.

The Razorbacks were right with the Bullets at half time and then got ran over in the second half to go down by 18 points last night.  Import Darnell Hinson led the way with 19 points.  The Razorbacks will be keen to stay in touch with the top 8.  It will be a very testing game for them.

I expect the Taipans to get the points here.  Mee’s absence will hurt them, but it is hard to envisage the Razorbacks backing up and really challenging them.  Having said this, the line betting does look a touch short.  There is definitely not enough value for a play on the inconsistent Razorbacks backing up though (even though they will be encouraged by beating the Taipans by 2 at home in round 7).  The points total looks a few points too high.  Both teams are capable of piling on the points and there will be no play there for me.