NBL Round 11

New Zealand v South Dragons

The Breakers will look to get back on track without any imports for the second game running whilst the Dragons will look to start a winning streak and make a move up the ladder.

The Breakers got trounced by Cairns at home last Thursday without either of their imports.  They got out-rebounded 52-30 in this game which would make it pretty hard to beat anybody.  This is an aspect of their game that can get rectified through every player picking up the slack.  Doing this will also reduce the offensive productivity of the likes of Tony Ronaldson, Oscar Foreman, Mika Vukona and Tim Behrendorff.  The Breakers will need all of these frontcourt players to also be a presence offensively to keep the Dragons defence honest and ease the burden on Kirk Penney and Phill Jones.  Apart from Ronaldson, I do not believe that the other 3 are capable of this.

The Dragons took care of business on their home court last Sunday, with a strong second half giving them a 10 point win over cellar dwellers Singapore.  Player coach Shane Heal carried on from his strong finish that nearly stole the game from Adelaide the week before.  Leading by example, Heal had 24 points on 7/13 field goals (4/7 on three pointers).  Jacob Holmes, Joe Ingles and import Cortez Groves were also impressive (21, 19 and 17 points respectively).  Import Bakari Hendrix and their other big Matt Burston were quiet in this game.  I would expect Heal to really get these two to test out the Breakers under-strength frontcourt.

The key to this game will be the amount of help that Penney and Jones can get offensively.  I do not think that they will get enough.  I believe the Dragons are value in the current market.  The point total looks a touch big to me; however, there is not quite enough value here for me to have a play on the unders.

Brisbane v Townsville

Another Queensland derby with 3rd vs 7th as the Bullets host the Crocs.  Both carry winning streaks into this game (Bullets 3, Crocs 5) and will hope to extend them.  A keenly contested game should ensue as a result.

 The Bullets punished fellow Queensland rivals Gold Coast at home by 28 points last Saturday.  What was most impressive about this win was that they did it without Sam Mackinnon and Craig Bradshaw (both will not be playing in this game).  Import Dusty Rychart and Mick Hill really stepped up (with Rychart earning NBL player of the week honours).  CJ Bruton is in some doubt for this game with ankle soreness.  He had an MRI earlier this week to determine the source of the pain.  This is not a good sign.  My latest mail is that he will have a shoot-around today to test it out and make a decision then.  They welcome back centre Justin Brown from stress fractures in his foot.  Coach Joey Wright has already said that he won’t play too much as he has not played at all this season and would be lacking in game fitness.  Against Gold Coast, Brisbane used a seven man rotation of Bruton, Adam Gibson, Hill, Ebi Ere, Dillon Boucher, Rychart and Brad Williamson.  If Bruton does not play I would expect Williamson to get more minutes in what may very well be a 6 man rotation (Brown will spell Boucher and Rychart if they get in any foul trouble).

The Crocs notched up a win in Adelaide last Sunday after trouncing the Melbourne Tigers on their home court.  They are playing very well as a unit, with everyone playing their part.  The Bullets will be clogging up the lanes to test out the jumpshot of Corey Williams.  How successful he is with these could go a long way towards deciding the outcome of this game.  The Crocs will face a very stern test against the Bullets regardless, who will be keen to show that they are still the number one team in Queensland.

The current market looks about right with Bruton not playing.  If he is included, it gives the Bullets an extra guard of good quality to throw at Williams defensively.  The -4.5 that is currently out there is value with Bruton a confirmed starter.  Until this is the case, there is no play.  I have no opinion on the points total as it looks spot on to me.