NBL Round 11

Gold Coast v Adelaide

Both of these teams will be looking to avoid starting a losing streak in this game.  The Blaze were humbled by state rivals Brisbane last Saturday, after winning their 2 games prior to that.  Adelaide couldn’t make it 4 wins in a row after Townsville got a victory on their home floor last Sunday.

After this game the Blaze face a trip to Wollongong for a game against the Hawks on Friday.  They would like their chances of getting both of these games this week.  They would also like to get the important season series split on Adelaide after they avenged a 5 point half time deficit to beat them on their home floor back in round 6.  Pero Cameron wreaked a lot of havoc in this game through pulling Adelaide’s bigs out near the 3 point line which allowed some space for their other players to do some damage inside.

Adelaide will host the West Sydney Razorbacks on their home court on Saturday after this game.  They will have Brett Maher for neither of these.  He is due back next week.  They shot a poor percentage from the field last Sunday (34% field goals and 21% on 3 pointers).  Coach Phil Smyth was happy with the shots that his team took; they just didn’t drop on the day.  This along with losing the second quarter (and letting bench player Michael Cedar get 17 points during this period in the process) were their main downfalls that led to the home loss.

The absence of Maher makes me believe that Adelaide will not be overly competitive.  The good percentages that he shoots and the ability he has to create for his team mates leaves too big of a hole for them knock off the Blaze on their home court.  They will be desperate to get the win but I believe the Blaze will be too good in the end.  This seems to be accurately reflected in the line betting.  I initially thought the points total was a little too low.  However I do find it hard to be confident in Adelaide shooting much better than what they have been in recent times and there will be no play on the overs here.   

West Sydney v Singapore

The 9th placed Razorbacks (6 wins, 7 losses) host the 13th placed Slingers (2 wins, 13 losses).  Both teams come into this game keen to end their respective losing streaks.

The Razorbacks have had 10 days to recover from losing 3 games in the space of 5 days.  Coach Rob Beveridge said most of his squad needed the rest to shake off some niggles.  All except forward Anthony Petrie (knee soreness but will still play) will be at full strength.  Coach said his players will be fresh and eager to reinforce the element of their game that has made them successful in the early part of the season, their pressuring defence which, when working well, fuels their offence.

The Slingers will be out to avoid a sixth consecutive loss.  They were leading by 2 points at half time in their last game against the South Dragons in Melbourne on Sunday, only to lose by 10 in the end.  Their imports got some support from Chris Cameron, Ben Knight and Blagoj Janev (18, 12 and 12 points respectively).  They will need this to continue to even stand a chance against anyone in this competition.

I believe the rested Razorbacks will be too good in the end.  The Slingers may be competitive for a quarter or two, but the deeply rotated Razorbacks will have too much for the Slingers who rely way too much on their imports.  The line betting seems about right.  I think the points total in the market is a touch too big.  With the Razorbacks looking to clamp down defensively I cannot see the Slingers putting up a very high score at all.  On the season, the Slingers are averaging 92 pts per game away from home whilst conceding 108.  The Razorbacks average 103 points at home and concede 102.

Under 207.5 @ $1.9 Centrebet - 1 unit

Sydney v Perth

The televised game on Big Wednesday has the Kings looking to make it 8 in a row hosting the Wildcats who will be seeking their 3rd win in succession.

The high flying Kings comfortably accounted for the Taipans in an impressive away win last Sunday.  Mark Worthington stood out with 31 points and 9 rebounds.  All 10 players got on the scoresheet.  The Wildcats face an extremely tough task trying to knock them off on their home floor.

For a team that is supposedly just putting the turmoil surrounding the sacking of import Rashad Phillips behind them, at 6 wins and 5 losses, the Wildcats are in pretty good shape.  Their new import, Gerald Brown, might not be as quick as Phillips, but there also might not be any point guard in this league (outside of Daryl McDonald) who is more intelligent on the court than him.  Every time it looked like he was holding onto the ball for too long in their 103-85 home victory over the Melbourne Tigers last Saturday, an opening for one of his team mates eventuated every time he released the ball in such instances.  This is a very rare quality for a point guard in the NBL to possess.  Paul Rogers, Alex Loughton and Brad Robbins did not play like they were in doubt for this game either.

I think the Kings are a little too short.  I expect the Kings to win on their home court (6-0 this season).  I also expect the Wildcats to build on their impressive showing against the Tigers and make it quite hard for the Kings as they make a push to try and get back in the top 4.  The points total in the market currently looks about right.