NBL Round 10

NZ v Cairns

Both teams come into this season-series decider severely under-strength.  The Breakers will be without both imports Rick Rickert (sciatic nerve strain) and Wayne Turner (thigh injury).  The Taipans will be without Martin Cattalini (achilles strain) and Rashad Tucker (groin injury).  The Breakers will be looking to further their place in the top 4 whilst the Taipans will look to stay in the top 8.

The Breakers coped admirably without Turner last week, easily accounting for Wollongong and the Taipans on their home court.  Paul Henare, Ryan Kersten and Phill Jones all stepped up in his absence and will need to do so again.  How they manage without Rickert (17.8 ppg and 10 rpg) remains to be seen.  Tim Behrendorff and Mika Vukona will need to be more of a presence inside on the offensive end as well as the defensive end.

The Taipans have had Cattalini in and out of their lineup all season.  They have managed to stay competitive and notch up some wins in the midst of this.  One of the reasons that has enabled this has been the play of Rashad Tucker.  His contributions this season have not really appeared on a boxscore.  The way he makes things happen when their structure breaks down offensively and he seems to do this when his team needs it the most.  He is also one of their better defenders.  Their role players (Gary Boodnikoff, Scott Cook, Aaron Grabau, Matt Smith) will need to contribute more.  The Taipans could also do with more offensive output from Stephen Black, who has cooled off recently after a big start to the season.

The key to this game will be who copes better with the team outs.  I believe the Taipans will as they have had to play a few games without Tucker and Cattalini already.  I think the Breakers are a touch too short.  I do not expect it to be a high scoring game.  I do think that the points total in the market is about right.

Cairns +2.5 @ $1.90 Sportingbet - 1 unit
Cairns @ $2.27 Pinnacle Sports - 1 unit

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