NBL Round 5

Souths v Brisbane

The Bullets will be looking to bounce back in a big way against bottom feeder the Dragons in Melbourne. The Bullets shot blanks on their way to a 117-127 defeat at the hands of the Kings midweek. The club was out hustled in almost every facet of the game. They lifted their intensity in the fourth quarter but it was too little too late. CJ led the way with 33 points which was a good effort considering how hard he had to work for his points. Almost every time down the floor he copped some sort after nasty check from the opposition but to his credit he was equal to the challenge. New recruit Bradshaw had his best game for the club with 30. Their imports only tallied 26 points between them and that is clearly not enough.

Souths meanwhile have big problems of their own. They haven’t won a game. There are rumblings of unhappiness within the organization. Shane Heal has been assured by owner Mark Cowan that his tenure is safe though for now. I have been impressed with the move to start Matt Burston at centre. This move will be most beneficial for the club long-term. Fingers crossed he stays 100% healthy now so the Dragons can reap the rewards. Where this leaves Nick Horvath remains to be seen. I believe the two could co-exist on the court but with their limited depth in the frontcourt it would prove costly rotation wise.

Bluechip Cortez Groves is back after a week off with an eye injury and he could be the spark to get the club their first win. He will be a vital cog in the attack as the club will try to break their opponents’ full court press with some speed in the open court.
The Kings had a lot of success running through this full court press midweek so I would be expecting the Dragons to adapt similar tactics. They have to get their running game going which was so effective last year.

Brisbane will try to combat this by falling back into the half-court and trying to grind out the victory. I doubt they could play at the same intensity in the full court. There were many tired bodies during and after that epic match. This will be their third game in six days as well where as the home team has had the whole week to prepare.

Both teams will be looking to hit the boards hard at both ends particularly coming off ordinary performances recently. It will be a real war down low to gain any advantage they can for their respective clubs. Interestingly enough after a defeat last season the Bullets kept their opponent to 94 points per game, six less then their regular season average.

Selections

Under 215.5 1.5 units (under 215.5 @ 1.95 Centrebet)

There is inflation on the total number. I am predicting mid 200 total game score in the finish. I think in this situation both teams will be clamping down.

Bonus- Joe Ingles top scorer group of 4 at the TAB 3.75 0.5 unit

With Bradshaw coming off the bench and returning small numbers on the road and Rychart struggling, this is the perfect game for the kid to make an impact. Horvath is coming of the bench as well and appears to be in Hammers doghouse so we should get a good run for our money. He will appreciate Groves being back in the line-up as he has been handling the ball and distributing in his absence. Out of all these players he has the most potential to score in bunches.

Razorbacks v Kings

Cross town arch rivals square off in the battle of Sydney in this much anticipated derby clash. The Razors are the most improved team in the league this season. Coach Beveridge has transformed this club into a contender and I am sure before the season started they would have had this match circled as a statement game.
They are however coming off a most disappointing performance last week against the Hawks where they were pounded by 23 points. Darnell Hinson was kept in quiet through the first three quarters and only had 12 points as he was continually checked and hit to the floor before he busted out in the last when the game was over to finish with 24. Liam Rush continued his solid start to the season with 18 and 7 boards.

For the Kings it doesn’t get any sweeter then an away win in Brisbane against the defending champs. How do they get themselves up for this match after the emotional high of victory of this magnitude? The clubs guards had a field day against the hapless Bullets defence. Kendall drilled 24 points with five threes and 3 steals. BJ Carter fired in 19 points including five triples in a career night. Special mention goes to Russell Hinder who could barely walk in the warm-ups. He tallied 14 points and 13 boards including eight offensive. The Kings have not been the best rebounding club this season and his performance was key.

The Razors will look to get out on the break and try and exploit some tired and weary Kings. They do welcome back forward Anthony Petrie back for this match which gives them some variation in the frontcourt but they are still missing boom youngster Matt Knight. They need some more consistency from import Troy DeVries. With Hinson no doubt being the focus of the Kings defensive effort he needs to hit his jumpers to ease the burden on his team.

The Kings will be looking to break their opponent down in the half-court with Worthington being the focal point going strong to the bucket. Brian Goorjian has the advantage of having half of his squad involved in the Australian national team. All the players run his systems with confidence and the results speak for themselves. It will be a tough task for the young Razors squad to compete with them especially with confidence at the Kings at an all time high.

As is always the case with derbies, expect the game to be tightly contested but for mine the Kings should draw away in the closing stages to record their sixth victory.

NO PLAY

Blaze v Hawks

Gold Coast will look to record their second consecutive home win when they play Hawks in what should be a spiteful encounter. Joyce who was sacked by Wollongong towards the later stages of last season will be fired up to get the W. He didn’t go quietly taking his son Daniel and import Casey Frank with him to the new franchise.

The Blaze were impressive against the Slingers last weekend. Harvey once again led the way with 30 points. He was ably supported by Scott McGregor who had 18 and 13 rebounds. After their tough initiation to the league due to the scheduling which seen them face three of the top four sides in the opening weeks the club will feel they are in a good position to continue to rise.

The Hawks revealed yesterday they have parted ways with import James Peters so they will be one import short in this clash. Peters has not played for two weeks so I doubt it will have much bearing on the result. The club will be buoyed by their first victory this season over the Razorbacks which seen them amass a massive 132 points! Franklin, Tragardh and Campbell combined for 78 of those points. The club shot an amazing 60% from the field.

Cam Tragardh has been a revelation this season. He is averaging 27.5 points in his last two games and is proving to be a valuable pickup for the club which was decimated with departing players.

The Blaze have plenty of big bodies to throw at him down low and how Tragardh reacts to that will be important. He needs some support in the trenches for the Hawks to be any chance here. Ben Melmeth is expected back after a two week injury layoff and his experience and size will be welcome to combat the gun youngster.

The home team will feel confident with some impressive performances against grand finalists from last year Brisbane and Melbourne. One component of their game which Joyce has implemented with success in the early part of the season is their defence.
Apart from them conceding 115 in their first match against the Bullets they have kept every other opponent to under 100 points which has been very important. Their defence will be under constant pressure from the dangerous Hawks trio but their ability to control the boards and dictate the game should be enough for them to get over the line. The Hawks defence is conceding ten more points per game compared to the Coast and this could very well be the deciding factor.

NO PLAY

Townsville v Adelaide

Both teams are in need of an important win to resurrect their season as the 36ers continue their three game road trip to visit the Crocs in what will be a battle of contrasting styles.

The home club has lost five in a row as the agony continued last start when they were defeated by the Breakers by one point. New import Homicide Williams had a shot at the death but it failed to drop. It was an exceptional debut by the American. He tallied 26 points, 7 boards and 6 assists in a dominating display off the bench. Dan Egan had 17 including three triples and Ben Pepper worked tirelessly for 14 points and 9 boards. Rillie was alittle disappointing only returning 7 points on 3/11 shooting.

Adelaide made the running in the early parts of their match with NZ but were unable to hold on in the clutch and lost by 7 midweek. Brett Maher was at his dazzling best firing in 27 points with seven threes and five assists. Mike Chappell returned to form with 21 points and six rebounds in his best performance this season.

Townsville fans are not used to their club averaging only 89 points per game but with the recruitment of Williams I am expecting that average to climb to the lofty heights they are accustomed to in the coming weeks. His speed to break down his opponent and get to the rim so effortlessly was a highlight in his debut. Both clubs have made a lot of changes to their respective rosters and this has been a contributing factor to their form so far.

Townsville traditionally have been strong at home and the Sixers have had their fair share of trouble away from home in recent seasons so the Crocs will be confident of notching the victory. While Williams will benefit the club long-term they have to adjust to his playing style and find their open space for him to create.

The Sixers will be looking to exploit the smaller Crocs with their size but it should be relatively even contest on the boards. The Crocs have been hitting the offensive glass a lot this season and relying on their second chance opportunities. In a game like this where every rebound should be evenly contested they may not able put the points on the board required to walk away with the victory.

While the home club have a slight edge in the guard department this will be offset by their terrible assist to turnover ratio. It was the right call to bring in Williams as he will improve them in this area tremendously. But his team mates had better get on the same page quickly otherwise they might as well be spectators watching in the crowd as Homicide tries to do everything. It may take sometime. They will welcome into their line-up Bradley Sheridan who was recruited from the Kings in the off-season. He will provide plenty of spark from beyond the arc.

Selection

Adelaide 2.45 at Betworks for 2 units. Centrebet 2.35

With the Sixers in the middle of a difficult road trip and Sydney next week at the Kingdome I am anticipating a strong performance from them. While both teams are desperate for the win the 36ers should control the boards and the ball long enough to secure the much needed win.