NBL Round 4

Dragons v Sydney

The well travelled 3-0 Kings hit the road to take on the Dragons at Vodafone. Dragons were once again denied this season last night by the Tigers going down by three points in a tightly fought derby epic. While they remain winless more great signs were shown. Matt Burston finally showed some form with 15 points in the first half and 19 for the game. Starting at Centre in place of Nick Horvath who was relegated to the bench by Heal, Burston was extremely active around the hoop giving his club the inside presence they have been praying for. This finally released Holmes to the perimeter where he was able to light up for 22 points. Joe Ingles continued his impressive form with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists.

Anytime Brian Goorjian and his Sydney Kings face off with Hammer Heal they better be prepared to battle. They have been solid so far this season and their win against the Taipans last start was full of merit. The dominated early to be up by 18 and then had hang tough in the second half as Cairns rallied to be within one with minutes to play. Clutch free throws from Luke Kendall and some aggressive work on the glass got them over the hump. Worthington and Saville combined for 38 points, 26 rebounds and 5 blocks. The Kings defence is ranked number one in the league. They will be fully tested against the high octane Dragons offense.

The Dragons offense was really clicking against the Tigers. For the second game straight game the ball movement to find the open man really opened up their options offensively. This will give their opposition some problems. The Crocs earlier this season had a lot of success against the Kings with their ball movement and their guards are nowhere near as talented as the Dragons. Russell Hinder will miss his second straight game for the visitors and second import Isiah Victor will not be cleared in time for this match.

The home team match up quite well on the Kings. I can see for the first time this season both Burston and Horvath gaining an advantage on their opponents interior.
I keep coming back to a statistic from last year which was quite profitable. When the Dragons were blown out on their home court by 10 or more they were 5-0 in their next home game. It didn’t quite work against the Wildcats in game two this season. They were not quite ready to win at that stage. The improvement in last 2 games has been significant and with their form against the Tigers last night I am sure the momentum will flow over into this matchup. Brian Goorjian even went as far to say after last weeks match against Cairns they really needed the break. Not a good sign heading into this match with the Dragons relishing with every game played.

The Kings offense has been spasmodic at best this season. They rely on the quick hands and solid defence to make quick easy scores in transition. Worthington has been the focal point for Kings in the halfcourt and his matchup with Holmes will be critical. Holmes defensive effort on Anstey last night was inspiring for his team mates.
I am sure with Souths being on back to backs and with their ability to pick the ball the visitors will putting themselves in the passing lanes to test Souths transition defence.
Souths will gain a great deal of confidence from their previous two outings to find the open man the Kings give them, they just have to make sure they can execute. With their bigmen cleaning the glass to give them second chance opportunities they will have ample chances to punish Sydney.

Souths will more then likely show Sydney some zone in defence to test their ability from behind the arc. If their jump shooters are not burying their shots Souths will be out on the break quicker then you can blink.
If Souths limit their turnovers and force the Kings to score mostly from their halfcourt sets they should be able to keep them under 85/90 points.

Selection-

3 units Souths +4.5 @ 1.91 Lasseters

1 unit to win 2.7 Centrebet

Brisbane v Singapore

Talk about a total mismatch as Singapore is off back to backs to face defending champions and undefeated Brisbane. Trailing by only a four at halftime the Slingers were once again blown off the court on the road fading badly to Blaze by 15 points. Mike Helms finished with 21 points but was held to six in the second half. Once again their depth was not able to produce and their payed the price.

In their 3 game series last season the Bullets averaged 134 points against Singapore winning by a margin of 28.5 points! With Singapore revamping their roster from last year with the emphasis on developing youngsters this could get ugly here.

The Bullets shot down the Crocs last start with an dominating performance in Townsville on back to backs to win by 29 points. After a slow start CJ scored 20 for the match. Ebi Ere who is averaging 26 points per game continued his blistering form with 27. Rychart and Bradshaw combined for 37 points and 16 points in the low blocks to drive the Bullets to 4-0. Lowlight was another sub par effort from captain Sammy Mackinnon who only tallied 2/11, 4 points and 6 rebounds in 21 minutes. He will no doubt be looking to strike form in this type of match but question marks remain over his fitness after the teams return from China.

The Bullets once again lead the league with their offense. They have so many options they feel quite confident about beating their opposition in shootouts. Many questioned their ability in the halfcourt game without Bradtke and Black but to their credit they have jumped out of the gates this season and are clocking up some big scores.

Slingers are only averaging 81 on the road this season with two consecutive blowout losses. It’s a tough initiation for the club with only two experienced campaigners in the league on their roster and they have been literally thrown in the deep end.
This game is a good opportunity for them to rack up a decent score with the home team more the willing to accommodate them with some offensive chances.

They turned the ball over far too much against the Blaze last night. Their effort in the second half was embarrassing as well, just 12 points in the 3rd quarter. All five players on the court have to execute. They can not rely on Helms too much and in a game like this it would be necessary for the club to have multiple threats so their star guard has some freedom to work and be creative. It’s all about building for the future for Singapore. Each and every road game they play they must show significant improvement to build confidence for future situations.

Regardless of the result they must draw from the experience now and learn to play as a group which will only benefit them in the long run.
The Bullets will shoot them down here no question but I would be looking for an improved effort on the road from the Slingers an even spread of scoring.
Interestingly the two teams last season averaged 235 points in their season series.

Selection-

Over 208.5 1.90 Centrebet 1 unit (over 208.5 @ 1.9 Sports Acumen
Bookies have been adjusting for the huge under trend so far this season and this is a perfect situation for us to profit.