NBL Round 4

Cairns v Melbourne

Two top 4 sides face off in what should be a real grind as Melbourne travel to the top end to play Cairns. Both of these teams have incredible size on the inside and this game will reveal whether Jawai is the real deal, as he takes on Anstey and Muursepp for the first time. Whoever gets the upper hand in this department will be well and truly on their way to victory.

Cairns road trip last weekend had mixed results. They handled an injury riddled Hawks side on Friday night with some individual brilliance from Stephen Black. The following night against the Kings they were found wanting in the first half and were down by 18. They have won just one first half this season and although it’s not so much how they start, it’s how they finish that is the key. They roared back into the game to be down by 1 with a couple minutes to play, behind another Black shooting exhibition from the perimeter, but were unable to sustain the run to eventually fall by 7. Against high quality teams you can not afford to give them an inch so I expect Cairns to be going out hard here. They also lost the season series against the Tigers 3 zip last year so Alan Black will want to measure his charges against the best and a victory here at home will build enormous confidence.

Melbourne are just taking care of business right now. Three double digit blowouts to start the season and then last week they were used their experience and guile to perfection nailing the Blaze by 6. It would have been interesting if the Blaze hit their free throws late and may have been a different result. Anstey was huge again with 26 points and 10 boards.

How Cairns can counteract Anstey on the inside and outside will be crucial. There is no other player quite like him in this league, as he is strong and punishing down low, on the block, and then gives his defensive match up fits when he glides out to the perimeter and starts knocking down triples. Cairns will counteract this by trying to make the bigger Tigers tired by not only keeping the game up tempo but also pressuring them by attacking on the offensive end and perhaps drawing some fouls. If they do manage to get one of these two in foul trouble it will open up the interior for them to make some easy buckets. It also makes their task a little easier on the boards.
Melbourne will be honing in on Black who is having a great season so far.

Promising signs against the Kings was signs of life from Tucker and Boodnikoff for the first time this season. They will need more of the same here to ease the pressure on their General. They will be asking questions of Jawai down low defensively and he will want to be careful and stay out of foul trouble to give his team the best chance.

I will go with Cairns in a tightly fought contest. The club needs this kind of win to give them the self belief throughout the season. They have made the semi finals the last two years and just fallen short. With their off season purchases and experience gained in these situations there is no excuses against big name teams anymore.

Selection :

Cairns +4 1.90 or better 1 unit (+4.0 @1.9 Sports Acumen, Centrebet)

Perth v Adelaide

The Wildcats return home for their clash with arch rivals the 36ers.

Perth played well in both road games last week securing a hard fought 16 point victory over the Dragons and they were competitive with the Bullets leading in the third quarter by as many as eight before fading to lose by nine. The emergence of Al Loughton as a versatile athletic forward down low as freed up the likes of Redhage and Paul Rogers to go about their business in the workman like fashion there are accustomed to. Import Phillips has fit into the rotation quite nicely. Hard nosed defender Peter Crawford usually sparks his club with key rebounds, jumping for loose ball gets and draining the occasional trey from outside. Crawford is in some doubt again due to surgery on his face and will be a game time decision.

Adelaide were flat in their first half against the Dragons last start before kicking back hard in the second stanza to bury their opponent by seven points. New recruit Neil Mottram moved into the starting centre position and was very active with 12 points and 7 boards. Marathon man Brett Maher after a slow start fired up to hit 19 points and Ballinger was the game high scorer with 27. Import Mike Chappell continues to struggle, he is shooting 17% from the field through 3 games.

Perth lost only a few home games last season. They understand the key for any team in the league is to take care of your home games, win a high percentage and try to win 50% on the road. This would be a successful formula to make the top 4. So far this season Shawn Redhage is averaging 25.3 points per game to go with 10.8 rebounds.
He is coming of a season high 34 against the Bullets, which is the most any opponent against Brisbane has scored on their home court for two years. Chappell will need to be at his defensive best to shut him down. Both frontcourts match up quite well and the winner in this department especially on the glass will go along way to determining the winner here. I would lean to Perth in this area. Their versatility along with athleticism and nous around the bucket will give the Sixers some problems.

The visitors have had their fair share of problems on the road winning just four last year. Some might say this was because they were depleted by injuries. But the year before when they were virtually injury free they only recorded 5 wins on the road.
One area the Sixers will be looking to exploit will be Brad Davidson offensively against the pint sized Phillips. If Crawford doesn’t play they will have problems containing Maher.