NBL Games Round 1

Betting on the NBL over the last few years has seen a high percentage of favourites win and cover. That doesn’t mean that this year will be the same by any means but it is something to keep in mind when accessing games. The NBL is in need of some much needed publicity and interest from the community to stay alive. Hopefully the quality of basketball this season will generate a rise in crowd numbers and also line all of our wallets along the way. So if you get a chance, go along to some games and support this great sport.
The key to betting on basketball is a solid money management and sound discipline to endure a run of outs. My picks will be based on value, comparing lines available to my own lines. I wish all of you success in your betting this season on the NBL and look forward to providing sound selections to you through Punting Ace.

Wednesday 19th September

Gold Coast vs Brisbane

A mouth watering clash to open this years NBL season which sees new kids on the block, the Gold Coast Blaze, lock horns with 2006/07 championship winners Brisbane Bullets. For the Bullets, the off season away from the floorboards has not been kind to them. Stephen Black's departure to Cairns along with the retirement of Aussie basketball legend Mark Bradtke damages the Bullets somewhat. Off season surgery to CJ Bruton also hindered their preseason. Black and Bradtke were keys for a number of years for the Bullets. The Blaze starting five will consist of Harvey, McGregor, Melmeth alongside imports Jason Crowe and Juaquin Hawkins with ex Hawks coach Brendan Joyce at the helm.  Crowe is a well travelled journeyman who has taken his game to 5 different countries and was signed to a 10 day contract by NBA team the LA Clippers in 2003. Off the bench to provide some punch will be NZ duo Casey Frank and Pero Cameron alongside youngsters Nic Campbell, Tyson Demos and Daniel Joyce. Coach Joyce has recruited well to ensure the Blaze can be competitive in their first year in the league. The key player will be Pero Cameron. He was instrumental in NZ’s win over the Boomers in Game 3 of the Oceania series. Cameron will provide impact scoring and toughness. The Blaze certainly have enough experience to give the Bullets a run for their money. I was impressed with how the Blaze lifted their intensity on the defensive end in the later stages of the preseason. I am concerned that CJ Bruton, when asked to have the responsibility of being the go to guy, has failed in the past. Joey Wright has had to make changes to the offence so I am not sure how on song the Bullets will be in this match.

Selection
Brisbane should be conceding around 8 points in this game. They were average at best during the preseason winning a couple games including beating Blaze 122-106 in Cairns. However the Blaze got off to a slow start and cranked their defence to win their next 3 after the Bullets defeat. Coach Joyce has them primed early due to their schedule which sees them play the top four ranked teams in their first 5 games. Brisbane have the luxury of time working their way into the season as Coach Wright tinkers with the offence.

Gold Coast +9.5 @ 1.85 with vicTAB - 1 unit

West Sydney v Townsville

There is a lot to like about the Razors this season believe it or not. The key move of the off season was to bring in Rob Beveridge as Head Coach. Beveridge previously lead the Australian Emus to a Junior World title in 2003. The Razors have a lot of young talent who should respond to Beveridge given his success on the world stage. I like their two import signings in Hinson and DeVries. Both can score consistently and be a steadying influence for the younger players. Liam Rush, the most improved Razor, is over his back injury and ready to fire. The Razors had a setback when big man Tony Rampton went down injured but it could be a blessing in disguise as this will allow youngster Julian Khazzouh to roam the paint. He can alter and block a lot of shots and be a monster on the boards for them. He needs to develop a more efficient inside game to provide the Razors with a consistent presence in the paint offensively so the outside shooters have the freedom to score.

The Crocs have had a few injury concerns heading into this match with both Vanderjagt and Rillie suffering finger injures. They have lost Newley and star import Abney in the off season. They will have to find another avenue to the bucket. Import Young will have to provide most of the scoring as Rillie is getting long in the tooth. From the preseason results I have not seen anything to suggest that the Crocs will be any better this season. The Crocs road record last season was 6 wins and 10 losses. The Razors home record could have been better. They were 0-7 in games decided by 5 points or less. A lot of that was a result of inexperience and bad coaching. If they can find the desire to win the close ones, especially early in the season, it could launch them potentially into the playoffs.

Selection
Razor’s youngsters on the rise responding to some quality coaching, at home, meeting a team rebuilding and nursing some niggling injuries seems a recipe for success. Townsville’s loss of Newley and Abney will be hard to replace and they have a very ordinary away record.

Razorbacks @ 2.01 (Global, Sports Acumen), 2.0 (Sportingbet) - 1.5 units

Singapore v Melbourne

Mike Helms will have to post huge numbers for the Slingers to be any hope here. The Anstey led Tigers should have too much ability and experience for Singapore. Unfortunately for the Slingers they have lost a lot of their squad from last year and have had to fast track the development of some young locals to fill the gaps. They signed two quality Aussie youngsters in Janev and Cameron and also signed highly credentialed Rod Grizzard as their second import as well as hireing Gordie McLeod as head coach. McLeod brings championship experience and nous to the sidelines. The Slingers preseason was hardly ideal. They never played any of the local teams to fine tune their game. They were 3rd placed in the Brunei Cup and recorded some thrashings of thrown together All Star teams. It all looks impressive on paper but would have done nothing except give them false hope. Meanwhile the Tigers had a successful tour of Asia where they competed with the likes of Yao Ming and the Chinese National team. The Tigers also had at least 5 games or more against quality opposition at home. So there is no questioning their preparation for this match.

The Tigers owned a 3-0 record over the Slingers last season wining by an average of just under 10 points. New import Martin Muursepp will join Anstey to provide a twin towers look in the paint and the pair also played together, so they are familiar with each others game guaranteeing the transition will be smooth. Dave Thomas will take the assignment on Helms making things tough for him each time the Slingers move into offence. The Slingers are often tough at home winning 9 of 16 last season so it won’t be a cakewalk for the Tigers but I expect them to be a little bit better when it counts, particularly given their solid preparation.

Selection
Quality preparation in Asia and locally sees the Tigers in good stead here. Muursepp teams with Anstey to intimidate sides inside the paint and even if the Slingers match them inside, with Dave Thomas taking care of Helms and with no true point guard, things will get difficult for them offensively. The Slingers lost a lot of their squad from last year and replaced them with an injection of young talent. This will be an initiation by fire for them and the Tigers will have too much experience and ability.

Tigers -10.5 @1.9 (Sports Acumen) or -10.5 @1.85 (vicTAB) - 1 unit